Market Overview - The US labor market remains resilient, with the unemployment rate marginally decreasing to 4.4% in December 2025[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield recorded 4.18%, down 1 basis point this week, while the US dollar index rose by 0.69% to 99.1[15] - Gold prices increased by 3.68% and oil prices surged by 3.74% due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions on Russian oil[4] Asset Correlation and Inflation - The long-term correlation between US stocks and bonds has slightly declined since 2025, with expectations of continued low inflation in 2026[10] - If geopolitical factors lead to a significant rise in oil prices, the correlation may remain high, undermining the hedging effectiveness of US bonds against stocks[10] Global Fund Flows - Global funds saw a significant outflow of $12.07 billion from US equity funds and a substantial inflow of $14.18 billion into US fixed-income funds[4] - Chinese stock markets attracted capital inflows, particularly in materials, communications, and healthcare sectors[4] Valuation Metrics - As of January 9, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeded that of the S&P 500 and CAC 40, reaching 93.2% of its historical percentile[4] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the S&P 500 rose to 60%, while the Nasdaq's increased from 37% to 46%[4] Economic Indicators - The market is pricing in a 95.60% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in January 2026[4] - Upcoming key economic indicators include the US inflation data for December 2025[4] Risk Considerations - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not reflect long-term trends, and there is a risk of deeper-than-expected economic recession in Europe and the US[4]
全球资产配置每周聚焦（20260102-20260109）：美国股债长期相关性转负有赖于通胀维持低位-20260111
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-11 12:11