HUAXI Securities·2026-01-11 12:27Investment Rating - The report rates the insurance industry as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The insurance sector has shown significant improvement, with the Insurance II index rising by 19.5% and the Hong Kong Insurance index by 13.5% from December 4, 2025, to January 9, 2026 [1] - Major insurance companies have reported strong new business growth, with some top firms seeing over 70% year-on-year growth in new policies during the first three days of 2026 [2] - The overall premium income for life insurance from January to November 2025 increased by 9.1% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the liability side of the business [2] - The decline in deposit rates and the scarcity of large-denomination time deposits are expected to drive more funds into insurance products, which offer relatively higher returns [2] Summary by Sections Stock Performance - China Pacific Insurance led A-share gains with a 32.1% increase, followed by New China Life at 25.4%, China Life at 12.5%, and others [1][8] - In H-shares, New China Life also led with a 30.9% increase, while China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance followed with 23.6% and 21.7% respectively [1][8] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The average Price to Embedded Value (PEV) for major A-share insurers ranges from 0.76 to 0.93, while H-share PEVs range from 0.54 to 0.76, indicating that valuations are still below historical averages [4] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) growth for key companies, with China Ping An expected to reach an EPS of 8.08 in 2026, while China Pacific Insurance is projected at 4.80 [6][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for leading insurers due to improved fundamentals and the potential for valuation recovery, particularly for China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life [4]