地缘政治风险上升，金价再度冲高

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - The rise in geopolitical risks has led to increased uncertainty, causing precious metals, especially gold, to surge. However, short - term factors such as index rebalancing and margin adjustments may lead to price fluctuations, and the short - term decline risk should be noted. The medium - and long - term bull market pattern remains unchanged [1][2][3] - It is recommended to wait for a pullback before making long - position allocations [4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) decreased by 0.39 yuan/gram, a change rate of 12.3%. The internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) decreased by 11.94 yuan/gram, a change rate of - 289.0%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory decreased by 51 kg, a change rate of - 0.1%. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 91,052 ounces, a change rate of - 0.25%. SPDR ETF holdings decreased by 0.57 tons, a change rate of - 0.05%. CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 2,617 lots, a change rate of - 2.1%. The U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 0.01%, a change rate of - 0.2%. The U.S. 10 - year break - even interest rate increased by 0.0219%, a change rate of 0.97%. The S&P 500 index increased by 108 points, a change rate of 1.6%. The VIX volatility index remained unchanged, a change rate of - 0.1%. The gold cross - market arbitrage trading decreased by 0.1, a change rate of - 1.3%. The U.S. 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 0.05%, a change rate of - 2.4% [10] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 3.64%. Oil prices rose 7.3%, and the U.S. inflation expectation was 2.23%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.7%, and the U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.16%. The S&P 500 index fell 1.03%, and the VIX index was 14.5 [16][18] 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.57%. Developing - country stock markets mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82%. Real interest rates dropped slightly to 1.88%, and the gold price rose 4.1%. The spot commodity index closed up, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.7%. U.S. and German bonds declined, with a U.S. - German yield spread of 1.3%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.37%, and the Japanese bond yield was 2.09%. The euro depreciated 0.7%, the pound depreciated 0.39%, the yen depreciated 0.67%, and the Swiss franc depreciated 1.11%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.72% to 99.1, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [21][24][26][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative position data showed that the SPDR Gold ETF holdings dropped slightly to 1064 tons. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and the Shanghai gold remained at a discount. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 56.2 [34][37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: G7 Finance Meeting; Tuesday: U.S. December CPI, Japan closed for a day; Wednesday: China's December import and export data, U.S. November retail sales; Thursday: Federal Reserve Beige Book; Friday: U.S. January NAHB Housing Market Index [38]