Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-11 12:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [3][4]. - The report highlights the implementation of differentiated electricity pricing for high-energy-consuming industries in Shaanxi Province, which may accelerate capacity elimination in these sectors [3][4]. - The organic silicon industry is expected to see price increases, with DMC prices projected to rise to 14,000 yuan per ton due to tightening supply and pre-holiday inventory buildup [3][4]. - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in satellite launches and approvals for new satellite constellations [3][4]. Summary by Sections Macro Economic Analysis - Oil supply is constrained due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with tariff adjustments and economic improvements [3][4]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [3][4]. - Natural gas exports from the U.S. are anticipated to increase, potentially lowering import costs [3][4]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the differentiated electricity pricing policy in Shaanxi, which could lead to accelerated capacity elimination in high-energy-consuming industries [3][4]. - The organic silicon sector is highlighted for its potential price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand [3][4]. - The commercial aerospace industry is set for rapid growth, with significant satellite launches expected in the coming years [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policies, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals [3][4]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Textile Chain: LUXI Chemical, Tongkun Co., and others [3][4]. - Agriculture Chain: Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, and others [3][4]. - Export-related Chemicals: Juhua Co., Wanhu Chemical, and others [3][4]. - Emphasis is placed on key materials for growth, particularly in semiconductor and battery materials [3][4].