豆一：关注 USDA 报告、抛储：豆粕：等待 USDA 报告指引

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week (01.05 - 01.09), the US soybean futures prices showed a mixed trend with a slight upward shift in the center. The continuous procurement of US soybeans by China had a moderately positive impact. The domestic soybean meal futures prices fluctuated strongly, and the soybean No.1 futures prices rose [2]. - Next week (01.12 - 01.16), the price fluctuations of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures are expected to mainly depend on the USDA report. For soybean meal, if the report is bullish, the price is expected to rise; if it is neutral, the price is expected to mainly fluctuate at a low level. For soybean No.1, the previous market sentiment was strong, and the futures price reached a new high. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the USDA report and domestic reserve sales [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price Performance - US Soybean Futures: In the week of January 9, the main March contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 1.6%, and the main March contract of US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 2.67% [2]. - Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 Futures: In the week of January 9, the main m2605 contract of domestic soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.35%, and the main a2605 contract of soybean No.1 had a weekly increase of 3.23% [2]. Domestic Spot Market Conditions - Soybean Meal Spot: From 01.04 - 01.09, the domestic soybean meal spot price slightly increased. The trading volume increased week - on - week, with more long - term basis contracts. The提货 volume decreased week - on - week. The basis slightly decreased week - on - week. The inventory increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. The soybean crushing volume slightly increased week - on - week and is expected to rise next week [3][5]. - Soybean No.1 Spot: From 01.04 - 01.09, the domestic soybean No.1 spot price was moderately strong. The prices in some Northeast and sales areas increased, while those in some inland areas remained flat. Farmers in the Northeast production area were reluctant to sell, and the market was waiting for the reserve auction. The price increase in the sales area was limited, and attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking [6]. International Soybean Market Fundamentals - China's Procurement of US Soybeans: From January 5 - 9, the cumulative large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China were about 66.6 tons (for 2025/26 delivery), which had a moderately positive impact [2]. - US Soybean Sales and Shipment: In the week of January 1, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week, with a 9% week - on - week and about 23% year - on - year decrease in the export shipment of 2025/26 US soybeans, and about a 45% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative export shipment. The total weekly net sales decreased from about 124.6 tons to about 88 tons, which had a moderately negative impact [2]. - Brazilian Soybean Import Cost: As of January 9, the average import cost of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, with a week - on - week increase in the average CNF premium and the average crushing profit on the futures market, which had a neutral impact [2]. - Weather Forecast in South American Soybean Producing Areas: In the next two weeks (January 10 - 22), the precipitation in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas varied, and the temperature in the Argentine soybean - producing areas was first low and then returned to normal. Overall, the impact of weather issues in the producing areas was not significant, but continuous attention was needed [2].