宏观量化宏观指数周报20260111：2025年末新增贷款或季节性冲量-20260111

Economic Indicators - As of January 11, 2026, the ECI supply index is at 49.95%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.83%[6] - The ECI investment index is at 49.84%, down 0.01 percentage points, and the consumption index is at 49.67%, up 0.03 percentage points[6] - The ECI export index is at 50.17%, down 0.02 percentage points, indicating a mixed performance in economic activity[6] Loan and Financing Data - In the first 11 months of 2025, new RMB loans totaled 15.36 trillion, a decrease of 1.74 trillion compared to the same period in 2024[14] - It is expected that December 2025 will see new loans of approximately 1 trillion, consistent with seasonal trends from the past three years[14] - The social financing scale is projected to increase by around 2 trillion in December 2025, down approximately 0.86 trillion year-on-year, with a slight decrease in growth rate to 8.3%[14] Consumption and Investment Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 122,628 units in the last week of December 2025, an increase of 19,277 units year-on-year[24] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 25% week-on-week, but the supply of land increased by 29.62%[31] - The price of ordinary Portland cement was recorded at 281.30 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period[31] Export Performance - The export growth rate for South Korea in December was 13.40%, an increase of 5 percentage points from November, indicating a recovery in global demand[36] - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports in China decreased by 0.65% week-on-week, reflecting some challenges in export activity[36] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork rose to 17.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.26 yuan/kg, while the price of 28 monitored vegetables fell slightly to 5.60 yuan/kg[42] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.55 per barrel, up by $0.18, indicating a slight recovery in global oil prices[42] Risk Factors - Uncertainties remain regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[55] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector is still under observation[55]