国泰君安期货·能源化工聚烯烃周报-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Plastic: The supply of plastic is expected to remain loose in 2026, despite some production shifts and minor decreases in supply due to maintenance. The demand from the downstream industries is entering a seasonal off - peak period, with the overall market supply - demand pattern being unfavorable. The price is likely to face pressure before the Spring Festival. The recommended strategies are to take a short position on rebounds in a sideways market, and not to recommend cross - period or cross - variety trading for now [6]. - Polypropylene: The polypropylene market is also under price pressure during the off - season. The supply may see marginal changes due to potential PDH plant maintenance, but the overall supply - demand situation is still not optimistic. Similar to plastic, the recommended strategies are to take a short position on rebounds in a sideways market, and not to recommend cross - period or cross - variety trading for now [92][94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Plastic Part Price & Spread - Futures and domestic spot prices have shown some fluctuations, with the 5 - 9 month spread strengthening to - 31, and the basis remaining stable. The import window has been restored, and the import profit of LD is at a relatively high level within the year [6][9]. - The upstream prices have different trends: crude oil is in a low - level oscillation, naphtha is weakly stable, ethylene monomer is weakening, and coal prices are slightly rebounding. The overall profit of PE production has been restored, especially for ethane and ethylene procurement [30][36]. Supply - In 2025, the total effective capacity of PE increased by 16%, and the domestic output increased by 18%. The current overall supply is loose. Although there are some maintenance plans in January, the maintenance plans for February and March are limited, and the supply is expected to remain relatively loose [6]. - The import of Middle East and US sources is concentrated in January, and the overall import may increase at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 [6]. Demand & Inventory - The demand from the downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film is entering a seasonal off - peak period. The overall demand from downstream industries shows signs of decline, and the raw material demand is expected to decrease. The overall inventory of PE is not being smoothly destocked, and the confidence of the middle and lower reaches in the future market is average [6]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The basis of polypropylene is weakly oscillating, and the month spread is weakening. The overall profit of production is compressed, with the PDH production valuation remaining at a low level, and the coal - based and propylene - based production processes in a loss state [94][104][129]. - The upstream prices show that crude oil is strengthening at a low level, naphtha is sideways, and propylene is strengthening. Coal prices are rebounding [121]. Supply - In 2025, the total effective capacity of PP increased by 12.7%, and the annual output increased by 16.7%. The supply center has been declining recently, and the maintenance scale in January has increased. The follow - up maintenance scale is expected to increase, and the supply may be marginally supported if the maintenance plans are fulfilled [92]. - The import volume of PP is limited in the short term, and the export volume is expected to remain at a basic level [92]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream开工率 of polypropylene is declining. Although there is some demand release during the Spring Festival period, the off - season demand is difficult to resonate. The overall inventory of PP is not being smoothly destocked, and the inventory in the middle reaches has increased significantly this week [93][94].