铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20260111

Report Title - Aluminium & Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] Report Date - January 11, 2026 [2] Report Analyst - Wang Rong, Chief Analyst/Assistant Director of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Aluminium prices have significantly increased, approaching historical peaks. In the medium - term of 2026, supply constraints, diversified demand, a tight - balance market, and a low inventory - to - consumption ratio will support the upward movement of aluminium prices. However, high - price position management is necessary, and attention should be paid to potential risk points such as overseas AI - related equity asset performance and downstream processing profit indicators [3]. - For alumina, the fundamental driving force is downward, but the systematic risk preference rotation in the non - ferrous metal sector is still supporting the alumina futures market. As supply increases, it is expected that the spot and futures markets will form a negative feedback loop, and investors should look for selling opportunities at high prices [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Data - Market Performance: This week, the closing prices of alumina and aluminium futures increased, with the alumina主力 rising by 2.64% to 2843, the沪铝主力 rising by 2.90% to 24330, the LME aluminium rising by 4.24% to 3149, and the COMEX aluminium rising by 0.58% to 3110 [5]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of alumina and aluminium futures increased, while the open interest of沪铝主力 decreased by 67380 lots, and that of alumina主力 increased by 164323 lots [5]. - Inventory Changes: Aluminium inventories increased, with the aluminium ingot social inventory rising by 80,000 tons to 718,000 tons. Alumina inventories also increased, with the ALD full - scale social inventory rising by 84,000 tons to 4.935 million tons [3][4][5]. - Price Spread Changes: The spot - futures price spread of alumina weakened, while that of A00 aluminium strengthened. The near - month spread of沪铝 strengthened [5][7][10]. 2. Trading End - Price Spread: This week, the A00 aluminium spot premium strengthened, while the alumina spot premium weakened. The near - month spread of沪铝 strengthened [7][10]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of沪铝主力 and alumina主力 increased significantly. The open interest of沪铝主力 decreased slightly, while that of alumina主力 increased significantly and remained at a historical high [5][13]. - Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of沪铝 decreased, while that of alumina increased slightly and was at a historically low level [19]. 3. Inventory - Bauxite: Port inventories and inventory days increased. In December, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises increased. The port shipment volume from Guinea decreased, while the floating inventory increased. The port shipment volume from Australia increased, while the floating inventory decreased. The outbound volume showed differentiation, and the inbound volume increased [23][27][30][35]. - Alumina: The national total inventory and the ALD full - scale inventory continued to increase. The inventory in alumina plants, electrolytic aluminium plants, and ports increased, while the port inventory decreased [42][48][49][55]. - Electrolytic Aluminium: This week, the inventory increased significantly. Seasonally, the domestic electrolytic aluminium social inventory usually reaches its peak in the fifth or sixth week after the holiday and then enters a destocking cycle [56]. - Processed Products: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminium rods increased. The raw material and finished product inventory ratios of aluminium profiles and aluminium sheets and foils mostly increased slightly [60][63]. 4. Production - Bauxite: In December, domestic bauxite supply increased slightly. The production in Shanxi increased, while that in Henan and Guangxi showed different trends in different data sources [66][68][69]. - Alumina: The capacity utilization rate remained stable, but the fundamental supply - side situation remained loose. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.851 million tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last week [71][74]. - Electrolytic Aluminium: The operating capacity remained at a high level, but the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The aluminium - water ratio decreased seasonally, and the ingot - casting volume is expected to increase [75][80]. - Downstream Processing: The production of recycled aluminium rods, aluminium rods, and aluminium sheets and foils decreased. The operating rate of domestic aluminium downstream leading enterprises increased, with the operating rates of aluminium sheets and aluminium foils increasing [81][85][86]. 5. Profit - Alumina: In December, the profit decreased slightly. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while that in Guangxi was relatively better [93]. - Electrolytic Aluminium: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertainties in the global macro - economy and trade policies interfered with market expectations [106][109]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminium rods decreased, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [110]. 6. Consumption - Import and Export Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and沪铝 narrowed. In November 2025, the total export volume of aluminium products increased slightly, but the export demand was affected by trade policy adjustments [119][121][123]. - Absolute Consumption Volume: The commercial housing transaction area was at a low level, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [124].