橡胶周报：产能收紧，重心有望提高-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflection point of the long - term supply cycle has arrived. On the demand side, interest rate cuts support demand, policies and replacement cycles are beneficial for heavy - truck demand, while the real estate sector is the main drag. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the current valuation is not high. Inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle have raised the lower limit. It is predicted that the center of the rubber price will increase. Investors are advised to buy at an appropriate time, with the reference trading range of ru being 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and the short - to - medium - term support for nr being 12,400 - 12,600. The position of the arbitrage strategy of going long on ru and short on nr should be reduced [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - environment - There are policy expectations for the real estate market, which is yet to stabilize. Domestically, there is a trend of anti - involution. Externally, the Fed's interest rate cuts are beneficial for the capital market, but the spill - over effect of a potential U.S. recession should be guarded against. The U.S. aims to increase its GDP to $40 trillion by 2030, implying an average annual nominal GDP growth rate of about 5.5% in the next five years, which will be supported by inflation [6]. 3.2 Supply - The long - term inflection point has arrived. Raw materials are prone to price increases and difficult to decline. Rubber farmers' inventories were cleared at a high level in 2024 - 2025. High prices will stimulate output with high elasticity, while low prices may lead to inaction or hoarding. Price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather. The strength of raw materials and basis reflects the current market strength, but the weak spread between latex and cup lump reflects the relative weakness. The enthusiasm for rubber tapping is acceptable at the current price. This year's natural rubber growing areas have average weather conditions with more rainfall, and there were floods in southern Thailand in November, making raw materials relatively firm, but the processing sector is in the red. The global production is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is at a medium - low level relative to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber. The substitution space of synthetic rubber for natural rubber is approaching the top [6]. 3.3 Inventory - Qingdao's inventory is around the median level, having increased significantly compared to 2016, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is not low. However, considering the significant increase in imports this year and the high proportion of exports from producing areas to China, the inventory is not considered high overall, with a neutral evaluation. Attention should be paid to the seasonal peak of inventory accumulation. Due to the diversion of concentrated latex and production - capacity issues in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, the output of full - latex rubber is squeezed, and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high. The inventory of full - steel truck tires is lower than last year; the inventory of semi - steel tires is marginally decreasing from a high level, but considering the market expansion, it is evaluated as neutral [6]. 3.4 Demand - In 2025, real estate data continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, it will take time for a turnaround. Affected by the sharp decline in physical construction work in the real - estate sector, the recovery of road freight volume is difficult. It caught up with the 2019 level in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. However, heavy - truck sales are still supported by policies and replacement cycles. Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market penetration, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are oscillating weakly, and overseas markets rely more on tire replacement demand. The Fed's interest rate cuts are conducive to stimulating demand. Rubber demand follows the macro - environment, and it is expected that the global demand will grow by about 2% in 2026 [6]. 3.5 Strategy - The supply - side long - term inflection point has arrived. On the demand side, interest - rate cuts support demand, and policies and replacement cycles are beneficial for heavy - truck demand, with real estate being the main drag. The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the current valuation is not high. Inflation and the inflection point of the production - capacity cycle have raised the lower limit. It is predicted that the center of the rubber price will increase. Investors should buy at an appropriate time, with the reference trading range of ru being 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and the short - to - medium - term support for nr being 12,400 - 12,600. The position of the arbitrage strategy of going long on ru and short on nr should be reduced [6].