多头情绪降温，白银高位回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, silver showed high - level fluctuations. London silver once fell below the 10 - day moving average during the week, then stabilized on Friday and tested the $80 mark, eventually closing at $79.9. The Shanghai silver main contract closed at 19,438 yuan/kg in the night session on Saturday morning. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were both 9.7%, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [8]. - The US manufacturing PMI in December was 47.9, lower than expected. The number of non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was significantly revised downward, but the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [8]. - The US CPI in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - Last week, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond decreased by 1 basis point, and the US dollar index continued to rebound slightly [8]. - In 2025, the global silver market's supply - demand gap is expected to exceed 100 million ounces, and the market is in a supply shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. The inventory of LBMA has dropped to a historical low, and the tradable silver inventory is tight [8]. - The silver market is expected to remain strong in the medium and long term under the triple - drive of strategic resources, financial attributes, and industrial attributes. It is recommended to hold the AG2604 long position in the medium term [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - Silver Trends: London silver and Shanghai silver had significant weekly and cumulative gains in 2025. London silver showed high - level fluctuations and finally closed at $79.9, while Shanghai silver closed at 19,438 yuan/kg [8]. - US Economy: The manufacturing PMI was weak, non - farm payrolls were lower than expected with previous data revisions, but the unemployment rate dropped [8]. - Inflation: US CPI and core CPI in November were lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - Interest Rates: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly [8]. - Supply and Demand: There is a large supply - demand gap in the silver market, and the tradable inventory is tight. The position of the largest silver ETF decreased week - on - week [8]. - Spreads: The spread between domestic and foreign silver futures reached a high of 1,762 yuan and finally closed at 820 yuan, and the gold - silver ratio in London spot reached 56.43 [8]. - Viewpoint and Strategy: The silver market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, and it is recommended to hold the AG2604 long position [9]. Futures and Spot Markets - Multiple charts show the trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver [13][17]. US Economy - Charts present data on US GDP, PMI, non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate [24][25]. Inflation - Charts display US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE data [30]. Interest Rates - Charts show short - term and medium - long - term US Treasury bond yields and real interest rates [37][41]. Fundamentals - A table shows the global silver supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 to 2025F, including supply (mining production, recycling, etc.) and demand (industrial, jewelry, etc.) [45]. - Charts show silver ETF positions, COMEX, LBMA, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories [46][49][53]. US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - Charts show the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and other exchange rates such as pound - US dollar and US dollar - Canadian dollar [59][62][67]. Silver Spreads - Charts show the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures, spreads between domestic and foreign silver, silver basis, and gold - silver ratio [76][84][89].