关注下周一的MPOB报告，油脂长期或震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Long - term outlook for the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, mainly due to the expectation of Indonesia implementing B50 [5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - Soybean oil: South American Brazil's main producing areas have had good rainfall recently, beneficial for the growth of sown soybeans. Argentina's core producing areas may have less or average rainfall in the next two weeks, which requires close attention [6]. - Palm oil: MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 4.64% month - on - month. With weak export data in December, its inventory in December is expected to exceed 3 million tons. Indonesia may confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations this year, and concerns about management and the B50 plan may push up palm oil prices in the long run [6]. - Rapeseed oil: The market is watching whether the issues of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil tariffs can be resolved when the Canadian Prime Minister visits China next week [6]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - Unilateral trading: For palm oil 05, the support level is recommended to be around 8,200 - 8,300. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Outlook: Key factors to watch include national biodiesel policies, Southeast Asian palm oil production and exports, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices [10]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - Last week, the oils and fats market was oscillating and strengthening, mainly due to market speculation about Indonesia's B50 policy and the expectation of an increase in Indonesia's palm oil export tax [22]. - For the price differences between varieties: - The soybean - palm oil price difference is fluctuating widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The rapeseed - palm oil price difference is oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see. - The rapeseed - soybean oil price difference is fluctuating widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. 3.4 Supply Side - Malaysian palm oil: The November MPOB report shows that Malaysia's crude palm oil production in November decreased by 5.30% to 1.9355 million tons, consumption increased by 31.84% to 0.3718 million tons, exports decreased by 28.13% to 1.2128 million tons, and the inventory at the end of November increased by 13.04% to 2.8354 million tons, which was bearish for palm oil prices [44]. - Domestic soybean and soybean oil: Data shows the trends of China's soybean imports, soybean oil imports, port inventories, and soybean crushing volumes over the years [46][47][48]. - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil: Data shows the trends of China's rapeseed imports, rapeseed oil imports, port inventories, and rapeseed crushing volumes over the years [55][57][58]. - Domestic palm oil: Data shows the trends of China's palm oil imports over the years [65][67]. 3.5 Demand Side - Data shows the trading volumes of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the total trading volume of the three major oils and fats over the years [70][74][76]. 3.6 Inventory - As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.081 million tons, a decrease of 0.008 million tons (0.73%) from the previous week and an increase of 0.1485 million tons (15.92%) year - on - year. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 0.7338 million tons, a decrease of 0.0003 million tons (0.04%) from the previous week and an increase of 0.2321 million tons (46.26%) year - on - year [82]. - As of January 2, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal main oil mills was 0.003 million tons, a decrease of 0.001 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 0.267 million tons, a decrease of 0.014 million tons from the previous week; the total rapeseed oil inventory in major national regions was 0.27 million tons, a decrease of 0.015 million tons from the previous week [86]. 3.7 Futures Import Profit - As of January 9, 2026, the futures import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the February shipment was - 121 yuan/ton [92].