聚酯数据周报-20260111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain [13]. - PTA is expected to enter a pattern of declining demand, but currently, with polyester production not significantly decreased and PTA inventory in a state of low - level depletion, the unilateral price is still expected to be strong [4]. - The current low price of ethylene glycol (MEG) is mainly due to the reduced turnover efficiency in the intermediate trading link, but this situation will improve in the future. With strong support at 3,600 yuan/ton, it is recommended to close short positions [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX - Valuation: PX is in a high - level volatile market with a weakening monthly spread. The PXN spread is weak, the gasoline inventory is rising, the aromatics blending oil demand is weak, and the aromatics blending oil economy is deteriorating [15][24][27][37]. - Supply and Demand: The domestic PX production rate is at a historical high, with the domestic production rate reaching 90.9% (+0.3%). The Asian total production rate is 81.2% (+0.3%). The PX inventory in December was 402 million tons (-5) [54][58][85]. - Import: In November, the PX import volume was 820,000 tons. Imports from South Korea and Japan continued to increase, while those from Brunei decreased [60]. PTA - Valuation: The basis and monthly spread of PTA rebounded, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased marginally. The processing fee rebounded from its bottom [91][100]. - Supply and Demand: The PTA production rate was 78%. The PTA export volume in November was 360,000 tons, with significant increases in exports to Egypt, Oman, and India. The inventory decreased marginally [103][106][120]. MEG - Valuation: The unilateral price of MEG rebounded from its bottom, but the monthly spread structure was still weak. The relative valuation continued to decline. The profit of coal - based plants was - 261 yuan/ton (-35), and oil - based plants continued to operate at a loss [138][142][144]. - Supply and Demand: The MEG production rate was 74%. Affected by the naphtha consumption tax policy and spring maintenance of syngas plants, the supply pressure eased. The import volume in November was 580,000 tons, lower than market expectations. Overseas plants reduced their loads, and the import volume is expected to decline. The port inventory remained flat [147][148][151]. Polyester Segment - Production Rate: The polyester production rate was 90.8%. It is expected to drop to 84% at the end of January, with an average monthly production rate of 88 - 89% in January [4][5][166]. - Inventory: The inventory of polyester products is expected to accumulate again after the slow sales during the New Year's Day [168]. - Export: From January to November, the total polyester export volume was 13.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [176]. - Profit: The losses of filament producers widened, while the profits of staple fiber and bottle chip producers were acceptable [178]. Terminal: Weaving and Textile and Apparel - Domestic Market: From January to November, the retail sales of Chinese textile and apparel reached 135.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The export volume from January to November was 137.8 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [207][213]. - Overseas Market: The retail data of textile and apparel in the US and Europe showed strong growth. The inventory of overseas textile and apparel decreased slightly month - on - month [217][222].