第 2 周成交回落，期待未来政策对冲外部不利影响

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [2][5] Core Insights - Recent real estate transactions have declined due to external uncertainties, but future policies are expected to mitigate these negative impacts and stabilize the market [2][5] - The report highlights a significant drop in new home sales across major cities, with a 67.4% decrease week-on-week and a 46.3% decrease year-on-year for the 30 major cities [5][10] - The land transaction volume also showed a decline, with a total land supply area of 13.38 million square meters and a transaction area of 12.19 million square meters, reflecting a supply-to-sales ratio of 1.10 [4][10] Summary by Sections Transaction Data - In the second week of 2026, new home sales in 30 major cities amounted to 1.03 million square meters, down 67.4% from the previous week and down 46.3% year-on-year [5][10] - First-tier cities recorded a sales area of 320,000 square meters, a decrease of 54.9% week-on-week and 50% year-on-year [5][10] - Second-tier cities saw a sales area of 460,000 square meters, down 76.9% week-on-week and 41% year-on-year [5][10] - Third-tier cities had a sales area of 260,000 square meters, down 46.3% week-on-week and 50.6% year-on-year [5][10] Land Transaction Data - The total land supply area for the year to date in the top 100 cities is 2.37 million square meters, down 12% year-on-year, while the cumulative transaction area is 4.694 million square meters, down 23.2% year-on-year [4][10] - The total land transfer revenue reached 36.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% [4][10] - The land premium rate was recorded at 0.5%, a decrease of 1.69 percentage points from the previous week [4][10] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The available housing inventory in 35 cities was 31.526 million square meters, down 1.07% month-on-month and down 2.03% year-on-year [10][12] - The inventory clearance cycle for these cities increased to 26.17 months, up 5.64% month-on-month and up 23.51% year-on-year [10][12]