原油周报：地缘扰动带动原油波动-20260111

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand of crude oil still tends to be in surplus, with global oil inventories at a high level. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, Iran, etc. Technically, it shows a range - bound pattern, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. Futures should be treated bearishly in the medium - to - long - term, and long call options can be bought for protection. The resistance level of the SC2603 contract is around 440 - 450 yuan/barrel [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply - OPEC+ crude oil production in November was 43.065 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.42 million barrels per day compared to the beginning of the year. OPEC's crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, up 1.765 million barrels per day from the start of the year. Saudi Arabia's production was 10.053 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 barrels per day. OPEC decided to suspend the production increase plan in the first three months of 2026 due to seasonal factors. US crude oil production exceeded 13.8 million barrels per day, remaining at a high level [8][34]. - As of December last year, the global active oil and gas rig count was 1,782, a month - on - month decrease of 30 and a year - on - year decrease of 82. The number of US rigs was 546, down 3 month - on - month and 43 year - on - year [28]. - China's crude oil production in November was 17.627 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The cumulative production from January to November was 198 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. China's crude oil imports in November were 50.891 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2% and a year - on - year increase of 84.9%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 522 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [52]. 2. Demand - The IEA monthly report raised the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2025 from 710,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day, and expected the growth to slow in the fourth quarter. It also raised the 2026 forecast from 699,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply in 2026 will exceed demand by 4.09 million barrels per day (previously forecasted as 3.97 million barrels per day). The EIA short - term energy outlook report expected global crude oil consumption in 2025 to be 104.1 million barrels per day (previously 104 million barrels per day) and 105.2 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 105.1 million barrels per day). OPEC changed its estimate of the global oil market from a deficit to a surplus due to higher - than - expected US production and increased OPEC supply [8]. - According to EIA data, global crude oil demand in November was 104.8 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 1.10% [58]. - As of the week ending January 2, the US refinery utilization rate was 94.7%, flat month - on - month and 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year, at a seasonal high. China's refinery utilization rate was 70.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.26 percentage points. Domestic major refinery utilization rates rebounded and were at a moderately high level, while independent refinery utilization rates decreased slightly [60][65]. - China's cumulative gasoline production from January to December 2025 was 162.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.07%, at the lowest level in recent years. Cumulative gasoline exports from January to November were 7.6775 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Cumulative diesel production from January to December 2025 was 209.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.55%. Cumulative diesel exports from January to November were 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.28%. Cumulative kerosene production from January to December 2025 was 61.6166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. Cumulative kerosene exports from January to November were 19.5845 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.56% [70][75][79]. - China's cumulative automobile production from January to November was 31.19 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.79%. Among them, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles was 14.87 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.94%. The rapid development of China's new energy vehicle industry since 2020 has had a certain substitution effect on traditional oil product demand [83]. 3. Inventory - According to the OPEC monthly report, OECD commercial oil inventories in October decreased by 32 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil inventories increasing by 12.9 million barrels and refined oil inventories decreasing by 44.9 million barrels), 62.7 million barrels higher than the same period last year but 12.4 million barrels lower than the five - year average. There has been an upward inventory accumulation trend this year, approaching the five - year average. Global in - transit crude oil inventories have declined from their highs but remain at a high level [89]. - As of the week ending January 2, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 38,300 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 7,300 barrels. US EIA gasoline inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 5.59 million barrels. With the high refinery utilization rate in the US, gasoline and diesel inventories continued to accumulate [91][95]. - China's port crude oil inventories increased slightly last week and were at a relatively high level in most years except 2020. Exchange warehouse receipt inventories remained stable at a low level [99]. 4. Market - Last week, international crude oil prices fluctuated at a low level, and the main contracts were at the lowest level in recent years. Domestic SC crude oil prices mainly followed the trend of international crude oil. The B - W spread rebounded slightly last week and was higher year - on - year. The SC - Oman spread continued to weaken and was lower year - on - year [17][21][24].