华联期货出口退税取消带动盘面快速下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak. The cancellation of export tax rebates will directly increase PVC export costs, but there may be a rush to export before April 1st. There is certain negative sentiment in the short - term, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact on supply due to intensified competition among upstream enterprises [8]. - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For the 2605 contract, the reference range is 4700 - 4900, and investors can consider the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Contract Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC contracts is stable and higher than the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread is also stable compared to the previous period and higher year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, with expectations stronger than reality [18]. - The 9 - 1 spread is stable compared to the previous period and lower year - on - year. The basis of the main contract rebounds slightly compared to the previous period but is weaker year - on - year [19]. 3.2 Supply End - In 2025, the new PVC production capacity was 2.2 million tons, with a growth rate close to 8%, and the effective production capacity exceeded 29 million tons. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua's 300,000 - ton new production capacity is planned, and the expansion of PVC production capacity is coming to an end. Last week, PVC output was 487,900 tons, a 0.83% increase from the previous week and a 4.03% increase year - on - year, mainly due to the increased load of some devices [25]. - As of now, the effective production capacity of calcium carbide - based PVC is 20.25 million tons, accounting for about 69.8%. Last week, the output was 343,400 tons, a 1.54% increase from the previous week and the same as the same period last year [28]. - As of now, the effective production capacity of ethylene - based PVC is 8.77 million tons, accounting for about 30.2%. Last week, the output was 144,500 tons, a 0.82% decrease from the previous week and a 14.96% increase year - on - year [32]. - Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.67%, a 1.04 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.33 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The maintenance loss was 124,500 tons [36]. - Last week, the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.71%, a 0.35 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.41 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.56%, a 0.27 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.12 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level in the same period [39]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative PVC import volume was 202,100 tons, a 1.46% increase year - on - year. From January to November, the import volume of plastics and their products in China was 17.63 million tons, a 6.32% decrease year - on - year [42]. 3.3 Demand End - From January to November 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.901 million tons, a 0.99% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC production and sales rate was 186%, an 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 50 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [49]. - Last week, the comprehensive operating rate of downstream PVC products remained at a low level. This is mainly due to the slowdown of construction in winter, the suspension of construction sites in the north, the entry of municipal and infrastructure project demand into the seasonal off - season, and the decrease in demand for pipes due to the sluggish real estate market [53]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC powder was 3.51 million tons, a 47% increase year - on - year. The main export destinations were India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc. India cancelled the BIS certification policy for PVC imports in November, and the anti - dumping duty is expected to end, which is favorable for domestic PVC exports in the long run [61]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC flooring materials was 3.7852 million tons, an 11.02% decrease year - on - year. The main destinations were Europe and the United States. Affected by trade frictions and weak external demand, the export of products continued to shrink [63]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 1.1141 million tons, a 3.47% increase from the previous week and a 44.71% increase year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 328,200 tons, a 6.14% increase from the previous week and a 27.36% increase year - on - year. Both social and enterprise inventories increased [69][76]. 3.5 Valuation - Last week, the price of semi - coke was stable compared to the previous period and at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of calcium carbide rebounded slightly compared to the previous period, with the mainstream price in Wuhai area reported at 2,400 yuan/ton [80]. - Last week, the price of ethylene was weakly stable and at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of vinyl chloride was weakly stable compared to the previous period and at the lowest level in the same period over the years [84]. - The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly compared to the previous period and was at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of liquid chlorine first increased and then decreased, and was higher year - on - year [88]. - Last week, the loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC production decreased slightly but was still at a low level in the same period. The loss of ethylene - based PVC also decreased, and the year - on - year loss decreased [91]. - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali increased slightly compared to the previous period but decreased year - on - year [95].