豆粕：等待USDA报告指引，豆一：关注USDA报告、抛储

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The prices of soybean meal and soybeans in the domestic and international markets last week showed different trends, and the prices next week are expected to be mainly influenced by the USDA report. For soybean meal, if the report is bullish, the price is expected to rise; if it is neutral, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. For soybeans, besides the USDA report, the domestic reserve auction situation also needs to be concerned [1][2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Price Trends - In the week of January 5 - 9, the US soybean futures prices "fluctuated up and down with a slightly upward center of gravity", with the main March 03 contract of US soybeans rising 1.6% week - on - week and the main March 03 contract of US soybean meal rising 2.67% week - on - week. The domestic soybean meal futures prices oscillated strongly, and the soybean futures prices rose. The main m2605 contract of soybean meal rose 1.35% week - on - week, and the main a2605 contract of soybeans rose 3.23% week - on - week [1][2]. Influencing Factors of Domestic Futures Prices - Soybean Meal: Bullish factors include strong domestic market sentiment and the official announcement of an auction of about 1.14 million tons of imported soybeans on January 13. Bearish factors include the optimistic outlook for China - Canada trade and the decline in rapeseed meal prices [2]. - Soybeans: The main bullish factor is the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market. In addition, market rumors of "delayed state reserve auction" and strong domestic spot prices also provide support [2]. International Soybean Market Fundamentals - China's Purchases: From January 5 - 9, the cumulative large - order sales of US soybeans to China were about 666,000 tons (for 2025/26 delivery), which has a moderately bullish impact [2]. - USDA Export Sales Report: In the week of January 1, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans decreased compared to the previous week, which has a moderately bearish impact. The export shipments of 2025/26 US soybeans were about 1.11 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 9% and a year - on - year decrease of about 23%; the cumulative export shipments were about 16.35 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 45% [2]. - Brazilian Soybean Import Cost: As of the week of January 9, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week, with a neutral impact [2]. - South American Weather Forecast: In the next two weeks (January 10 - 23), the precipitation in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas will vary, and the temperature will be "high first and then low, with little deviation from the average". The precipitation in the Argentine soybean - producing areas will be basically normal, and the temperature will be "initially low and then return to normal". Overall, the impact of weather problems in the producing areas is not significant, but it still needs attention [2]. Domestic Spot Market Conditions Soybean Meal - Transaction Volume: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, and the trading volume of far - month basis was relatively large. As of the week of January 9, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 310,000 tons, compared with about 200,000 tons in the previous week [3][5]. - Pick - up Volume: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of January 9, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 174,000 tons, compared with about 182,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - Basis: The basis of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of January 9, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 344 yuan/ton, compared with about 356 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 275 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of January 2, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 1.06 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of about 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of about 74% [5]. - Crushing Volume: The soybean crushing volume increased slightly week - on - week and is expected to rise next week. As of the week of January 9, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 1.77 million tons (1.75 million tons in the previous week and 1.93 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 49% (48% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (January 10 - 16), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.08 million tons (2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 57% (68% in the same period last year) [5]. Soybeans - Price: The soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In some northeastern regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans increased by 80 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; in some inland regions, the purchase price remained the same as the previous week; in the sales areas, the selling price of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 20 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [6]. - Farmer Behavior: Farmers in the northeastern producing areas were reluctant to sell, and the market was waiting for the auction. The remaining grain in the hands of grass - roots farmers was less than that of the same period last year, and the bullish sentiment was strong. The procurement of trading entities was slow, and they were waiting for the state reserve auction announcement with obvious wait - and - see sentiment [6]. - Sales Area Situation: The price increase in the sales areas was limited, and attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking. The price increase in the sales areas was smaller than that in the producing areas because there were some inventories in each link of the market, and the new demand for terminal soy products was limited [6].