国泰君安期货铂镍周报-20260111

Report Investment Rating - Platinum: Neutral [3] - Palladium: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Platinum shows a continuous oscillation, while palladium requires continuous attention to tariff policy trends. In the medium - term, the upward trend of platinum and palladium in the first quarter remains unchanged. The structural tightness in the spot market of platinum and palladium persists, and the tight balance of the spot market remains the core fundamental factor supporting prices. However, it is still necessary to monitor the impact of tariff policies on the prices of silver, platinum, and palladium [3][5] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Capital, and Position) - Trading Volume and Position in Guangzhou Futures Exchange: As of the end of this week, the total position of Guangzhou platinum is 39,590 lots, and the trading volume this week is 317,912 lots; the total position of Guangzhou palladium is 15,024 lots, and the trading volume this week is 122,569 lots. The position volume further decreased. Currently, the trading volume and position volume of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts. The monthly spread of palladium showed an obvious C - structure last week, and the PT08 contract was the price trough [9] - Overseas Futures - Spot Spread: For platinum, the spread between London platinum spot and New York platinum main contract converged and remained inverted, with the spread at $4.2 per ounce on Friday. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract was slightly at a discount, with a weekly average of - $7 per ounce. For palladium, the spread between London palladium spot and New York palladium main contract generally widened this week but converged to - $41 per ounce on Friday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract also converged overall, occasionally showing a positive value [12][14] - Arbitrage Opportunities: - Platinum Futures - Spot Positive Arbitrage: The cost is 8.8 yuan per gram, and the spread is 6.98 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [16] - Palladium Futures - Spot Positive Arbitrage: The cost is 6.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 72.1 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 65.4 yuan per gram [18] - Platinum Near - Far Month Inter - Month Positive Arbitrage: The cost is 8.0 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 2.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [20] - Palladium Near - Far Month Inter - Month Positive Arbitrage: The cost is 6.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 0.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [22] - Platinum Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage: The cost is 70.5 yuan per gram, and the spread is 85.9 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 15.4 yuan per gram [24] - Palladium Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage: The cost is 59.3 yuan per gram, and the spread is 73.9 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 14.6 yuan per gram [26] - Platinum Import Parity Calculation: The cost is 65.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 116.1 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 50.4 yuan per gram [28] - Palladium Import Parity Calculation: The cost is 55.2 yuan per gram, and the spread is 93.2 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 48 yuan per gram [30] - Recycling End Spread: As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium回调, the recycling discount of platinum widened to - 100 yuan per gram this week, while the recycling discount of palladium remained at around - 50 yuan per gram [32] - ETF Holdings: This week, platinum ETF holdings decreased by 0.27 tons (about 0.86 million ounces), and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.46 tons (about 1.48 million ounces). The net outflow of platinum ETFs contrasts with the increase in palladium ETFs, but the increase rate of palladium ETFs has slowed down [34] Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - Forward Discount Rate: In the past month, the overseas forward markets of both platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the depth of the forward discount of platinum and palladium has been continuously deepening. Platinum retraced slightly and then rebounded on Friday [39] - Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio: - Platinum: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased to 624,754.53 ounces, approximately 19.43 tons; the proportion of registered warehouse receipts increased to 57% [41] - Palladium: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged at 211,305.82 ounces, approximately 6.57 tons; the proportion of registered warehouse receipts further decreased to 65% [44] - China's Import - Export Data: - Platinum: Since September 2025, platinum exports have surged, and imports and net inflows have diverged. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow has been 557.17 tons. In November, imports decreased to 4.58 tons, and the net inflow rate also slowed down to 3.34 tons. December data is not yet available [51] - Palladium: Since 2020, palladium has had almost no exports and is in a pure import state, with a cumulative net inflow of 162 tons. In November, imports increased to 3.02 tons, and the net inflow was 3.02 tons. December data is not yet available [51] - London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance: A negative supply - demand balance indicates that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, and the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices are more willing to buy. This week, the supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was mostly positive, but reached - 90 kg on Friday. The supply - demand balance of London palladium fixing was positive throughout the week [52][53]