非银金融行业周报：关注业绩预告，资金端扰动不改非银板块中期逻辑-20260111

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The insurance and brokerage sectors have shown active performance at the beginning of the year, with insurance policy sales exceeding expectations and a notable rise in the stock market driving the insurance sector's growth. The brokerage sector benefits from increased market activity. The trend of "deposit migration" among residents is providing dual support for the non-bank financial sector, both in terms of liabilities (business growth) and assets (investment appreciation). The non-bank financial sector has been relatively stagnant in 2025, with valuations and institutional holdings still at low levels. Short-term funding disturbances are not a concern, and recent adjustments present good opportunities for positioning. The report remains optimistic about the non-bank sector's performance at the start of the year, with significant profit growth expected for brokerages and insurance companies in 2025, highlighting the importance of January's earnings forecasts and policy events as catalysts [5]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - In the first week of 2026, the average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 3.37 trillion, a 33% increase month-on-month and a 150% increase year-on-year, indicating a significant rise in market activity. As of January 8, 2026, the margin trading balance reached 2.62 trillion, up 44.1% from January 10, 2025. The market's "opening red" has led to the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index surpassing new highs for 2025, enhancing profitability for brokerages and securities IT companies. Regulatory policies are entering a "positive" cycle, with growth in investment banking, public funds, and overseas businesses expected to further expand, supporting the profitability of the securities industry in 2026. Current valuations and institutional holdings in the sector remain low, and the report recommends focusing on three main lines: undervalued leading brokerages such as Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and CICC; wealth management leaders like GF Securities and Dongfang Securities; and retail leaders benefiting from the Hainan cross-border asset management pilot, such as Guosen Securities. Beneficiary stocks include Tonghuashun [6]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's positive outlook is driven by both liabilities and assets. The "opening red" has catalyzed a significant rise in the insurance sector, with the individual insurance channel under pressure in 2025 but showing optimistic growth prospects for new policies in 2026 due to the transformation of dividend insurance and the integration of individual insurance reporting. The trend of deposit migration among residents is expected to sustain high growth in the bancassurance channel, while health insurance is likely to improve under policy guidance. On the asset side, stable long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to enhance net assets and profitability for insurance companies, with marginal improvements in liability costs. Over the medium to long term, the interest spread for insurance companies is expected to gradually improve, leading to a recovery in valuations. The report recommends China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance H [7]. Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - The recommended stock portfolio includes Huatai Securities, GF Securities, Guotai Junan, CICC H, China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance H, Ping An Insurance, CITIC Securities, Guosen Securities, and Dongfang Securities H. Beneficiary stocks include Tonghuashun and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [8].