Onechance(SZ:300792) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-11 13:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company, 壹网壹创, has a solid foundation in its agency business, covering various consumer goods categories, and has deep collaborations within the Alibaba ecosystem. With the support of AI technology, it is expected to break through performance ceilings [4] - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit CAGR from 2020 to 2024 due to industry factors, but in Q1-Q3 of 2025, it achieved a 4% year-on-year growth in net profit, indicating significant performance improvement. It is anticipated that 2025 will mark a turning point for performance recovery [4] - The company is actively exploring AI applications in specific business scenarios, with expectations for its AI vertical business to enter a high-growth phase in 2026. The commercialization of tools like "Master Student Map" and "Cloud Meeting" is projected to grow sequentially in Q4 2025 [6] - The company is adapting to the trend of e-commerce search evolution from SEO to GEO, establishing a specialized team to seize growth opportunities in the GEO commercialization wave [6] - The company maintains its position as a leading e-commerce agency service provider, consistently recognized as a "Tmall Six-Star Service Provider," with partnerships across various sectors including beauty, personal care, and health products [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 1,236 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.0%. For 2025, the revenue is expected to be 1,164 million, with a growth rate of -5.8%, followed by a recovery to 1,283 million in 2026 (10.2% growth) and 1,418 million in 2027 (10.5% growth) [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 111 million in 2025, with a significant increase to 146 million in 2026 (30.9% growth) and 181 million in 2027 (24.0% growth) [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.47 in 2025 to 0.61 in 2026 and 0.76 in 2027 [5] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 3.8% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027 [5]