央行大额净回笼，股债延续跷跷板行情

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the total issuance scale of China's bond market was 1294.537 billion yuan, with the supply rhythm significantly advanced at the beginning of the year. Government bonds and credit bonds jointly pushed up the weekly issuance volume. The combined issuance scale of national bonds and local bonds exceeded 400 billion yuan, and the combined issuance of medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and financial bonds exceeded 80 billion yuan, indicating active financing demand from enterprises and financial institutions. The supply pressure at the beginning of the year was released in advance, with the planned issuance of local bonds in the first quarter exceeding 2 trillion yuan [7]. - This week, the central bank's open - market operations saw a large - scale net withdrawal. Due to the concentrated maturity of 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchases around the New Year, the net withdrawal of funds in a single week reached 1.655 trillion yuan, a two - year high. This reflects the central bank's "precise regulation" thinking. The long - term yield rose rapidly. However, on January 9th, the central bank conducted 3.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection, and the bond market sentiment recovered [7]. - The short - term funds remained stable. DR007 fluctuated narrowly around the 7 - day reverse repurchase policy rate of 1.40%, and the overnight Shibor remained stable in the 1.2% - 1.3% range, indicating sufficient market funds [7]. - The yield of interest - rate bonds completed a "rise and fall" cycle this week. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of government bonds, credit delivery data, and the central bank's reverse repurchase renewal rhythm. The long - term yield may still fluctuate, while the short - term liquidity is expected to remain loose. If the equity market continues to strengthen, the bond market may face greater capital diversion pressure, and the long - term yield may rise again. If the central bank increases the net injection, the short - term stability will be enhanced, and institutional allocation demand may shift to short - term varieties [7]. - The bank system's excess reserve ratio is at a reasonable level, and the central bank's timely small - scale reverse repurchase operations have effectively smoothed out the capital fluctuations caused by the concentrated maturity of New Year's reverse repurchases. The bank system's liquidity remains relatively loose, laying a foundation for the decline in short - term interest - rate bond yields [9]. - This week, the yield of credit bonds generally declined, the market's demand for high - quality entities continued to be released, the credit spread narrowed passively, and the overall valuation center moved down. The urban investment bonds are mainly short - term (within 1 year), with intensified regional differentiation. The yields of high - quality regions such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang declined significantly, while provinces like Liaoning and Yunnan are still under pressure. In the industrial bond market, stable industries such as public utilities, transportation, and power performed steadily, while industries such as light manufacturing and real estate had large valuation deviations, and credit risk re - pricing should be noted. The credit bond market showed a "simultaneous rise of stocks and bonds" pattern, with fund companies as the main buyers, insurance institutions showing a net selling trend, banks' allocation and trading desks being divided, and wealth management funds continuously increasing their positions in 1 - 3 - year credit bonds [9]. - With the release of consumer loan and equipment renewal loan demand driven by the new round of trade - in programs and the return of enterprise and household deposits promoted by fiscal spending, the stability of the bank's liability side has been improved, and the expectations of credit expansion and economic recovery have been strengthened. With the support of the central bank's reverse repurchase and MLF tools, the short - term yield may remain in a low - level shock, while the long - term yield may be suppressed by economic recovery expectations, and the interest - rate curve may continue to show a "bullish steepening" pattern [9]. - In November 2025, 500 billion yuan of local special bond balance limits were issued, driving government - funded expenditures from negative to positive. The market expects that fiscal stimulus in 2026 will be significantly advanced, especially in the first half of the year. The expected issuance scale of local government special bonds in 2026 is about 4.4 trillion yuan, and the expected issuance scale of special national bonds is about 1.3 trillion yuan [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Issuance - This week, the total issuance scale of China's bond market was 1294.537 billion yuan, with government bonds and credit bonds jointly driving the increase. The combined issuance of national bonds and local bonds exceeded 400 billion yuan, and the combined issuance of medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and financial bonds exceeded 80 billion yuan. The planned issuance of local bonds in the first quarter exceeds 2 trillion yuan [7]. 3.2 Central Bank Operations - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 1.655 trillion yuan due to the concentrated maturity of reverse repurchases. On January 9th, it conducted 3.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection [7]. 3.3 Yield Trends - The yield of interest - rate bonds completed a "rise and fall" cycle this week. The long - term yield may still fluctuate, while the short - term liquidity is expected to remain loose [7]. - The yield of credit bonds generally declined this week, and the credit spread narrowed passively. Urban investment bonds showed regional differentiation, and industrial bonds in different industries had different performances [9]. 3.4 Market Participants' Behavior - Bank system liquidity is relatively loose, providing a stable capital environment for bond issuance and institutional allocation [9]. - In the credit bond market, fund companies are the main buyers, insurance institutions are net sellers, banks' allocation and trading desks are divided, and wealth management funds are increasing their positions in 1 - 3 - year credit bonds [9]. 3.5 Fiscal Policy Expectations - In 2026, fiscal stimulus is expected to be significantly advanced, especially in the first half of the year. The expected issuance scale of local government special bonds is about 4.4 trillion yuan, and the expected issuance scale of special national bonds is about 1.3 trillion yuan [9]. 3.6 Other Market Indicators - Multiple charts show data on bond market prices, yields, interest rates, and liquidity, including the prices of national bond futures, the basis of national bond futures, the implied interest rate of national bond futures, various bond yields, inter - bank repurchase rates, inter - bank lending rates, loan rates, and market liquidity indicators [10][14][16]