宏观情绪向好，震荡上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Production profits are poor, but the cost side provides support. The output is significantly higher than the same period last year, leading to significant pressure on the supply side. The overall downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level, and due to the seasonal off - peak season, demand remains weak. Technically, with positive macro - sentiment, the polyolefin prices may continue to rise [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Overview - Inventory: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 400,000 tons and may increase. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 450,000 tons and may decrease as spot offers rise and some downstream rigid purchases occur [9]. - Supply: Newly planned maintenance of plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Lanzhou Petrochemical, along with the non - restart of previously maintained plants, is expected to reduce the next - period total polyethylene output to 682,100 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the current period. The estimated total polypropylene output is 774,000 tons, showing a narrow decrease and continuing the downward trend [9]. - Demand: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly increased, with some rigid consumption in food composite films, daily chemical packaging bags, and barrier films. After the festival, the market consumes with orders, and there may be an increase in the operating rate in some fields in the middle of the month considering downstream inventory preparation. For polypropylene products, orders in various industries have decreased, causing the average industry operating rate to decline [9]. - Industrial Chain Profits: The losses of oil - based PE and PP, ethylene - based PE, and propylene - based PP have narrowed, while the loss of PDH - based PP remains large, and the cost side provides support [9]. 3.2 Views and Strategies - View: The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With positive macro - sentiment, the price center of polyolefins may continue to move up [11]. - Futures and Options Strategies: Go long with a light position and buy call options [11]. 3.3 PP Single - side Strategy - Strategy: Short PP. - Price and Trend: The price has rebounded from the bottom, reaching 6,484 as of January 8th. - Logic: The new PP production capacity is large, and downstream demand is weak, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and see for now [14]. 3.4 Supply - side - PE Output: There are data on PE weekly output, weekly operating rate, and maintenance loss volume. Plastic production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 12%. In 2025, the new capacity was 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity to be put into operation is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%, but the actual production volume may be about half considering the poor production profits [70][91][99]. - PP Output: There are data on PP weekly output, weekly operating rate, and maintenance loss volume. PP production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 11%. In 2025, China's PP realized production capacity was about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 49.165 million tons, a 10.2% increase from 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity to be put into operation is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%, and the actual production volume may be about half considering the poor production profits [77][97][101]. - Imports: There are data on PE and PP import volumes [84]. 3.5 Demand - side - Downstream Operating Rates: There are data on the operating rates of PE and PP downstream industries, including sub - industries such as agricultural film, packaging film, plastic weaving, and BOPP [106]. - Exports: There are data on PE and PP export volumes [127]. - Plastic Products: There are data on plastic product output, rubber and plastic products industry inventory, automobile and home appliance production year - on - year, home appliance export volume, domestic automobile production, and Chinese automobile exports [129].