国泰君安期货能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Soda Ash: The market is expected to be in a mid - term sideways trend. Supply surplus, high forward premium in futures, and potential downstream production cuts are the core driving forces of pressure. The price is supported by limited downside space and suppressed by supply surplus and glass industry cuts. The trading rhythm follows glass, with lower volatility [2][4]. - Glass: In the short term, it is weak; in the medium term, it is in a sideways trend, and over - bearish views are not advisable. The market will switch between rising driven by production cut expectations and falling due to weak demand and weak basis. The valuation factor will be crucial in the future [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - In the week, one float glass production line each in Southwest and Central China was shut down for cold repair, resulting in a week - on - week decline in production. As of January 8, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to January 1st [5]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 21,330 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 15,010 tons/day. Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,490 tons/day, potential old - line复产 production lines have a total of 9,370 tons, and potential cold - repair production lines have a total of 9,420 tons/day [10][11][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 150,000 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day [16]. Demand As of December 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and home - decoration orders are mainly low - value single orders [6]. Inventory As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared to the previous period [6]. Price and Profit - Market prices are mostly stable, with some regions showing increases. The price in Shahe is about 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton (up 10 - 20 yuan/ton), in Central China's Hubei region is 1,020 - 1,060 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the prices of some large manufacturers are 1,110 - 1,250 yuan/ton (mostly stable, some slightly up 10 - 20 yuan/ton) [19][23]. - The profit with petroleum coke as fuel is about - 7 yuan/ton, and the profits with natural gas and coal as fuels are about - 186 and - 74 yuan/ton respectively [28][32]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Market transactions have weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.5 yuan/square meter, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [44][46]. Capacity and Inventory - There are 400 in - production production lines nationwide, with a total daily melting volume of 87,620 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%. As of Thursday this week, the sample inventory days were about 40.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.66%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.16 percentage points [51][56]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash production plants have carried out phased maintenance and production reduction. The current capacity utilization rate is 84.4%, and the weekly output of heavy soda ash is about 405,000 tons. The inventory is about 1.5727 million tons. As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.93% [60][62][69]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe area is 1,180 yuan/ton, showing an increase. Most manufacturers' ex - factory prices are stable, with prices in Shandong increasing by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 58 yuan/ton [77][78][84]. Basis and Month - to - Month Spread The rise in futures has led to a weakening of the basis [80].