烧碱：偏弱震荡，PVC：偏弱震荡PVC

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Both caustic soda and PVC face oversupply, high inventory, and low - profit situations. In late 2025, both reduced production, but due to the off - season for winter maintenance, the overall supply reduction was weak. They face significant inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival, and high - level inventory needs to be continuously digested in the first half of 2026 [152] - Although the domestic chlor - alkali production capacity is in a loss, large - scale capacity elimination is difficult. In a low - profit situation, production cuts of PVC and caustic soda can drive a quick profit recovery, but it may not be sustainable for more than three months [152] - On the demand side, caustic soda is affected by the negative feedback from the low profit of alumina, while PVC faces the weak real - estate demand [152] - In terms of valuation, both have many supporting factors in 2026. Caustic soda has high volatility, and its forward futures prices between 2150 - 2300 have long - allocation value. PVC has large profit losses, but the forward premium restricts the market from trading low - valuation factors [152] - In 2026, caustic soda and PVC are expected to have a wide - range volatile market. Affected by maintenance expectations, differential electricity prices, and anti - involution sentiment, the continuous decline space is limited, but it is difficult to rise continuously before the fundamentals improve substantially. Caustic soda has stronger price elasticity than PVC [152] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basics and View Overview - Caustic soda: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state. The current supply shows high production and high inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. The demand from the alumina industry is difficult to expand significantly, and non - aluminum demand is facing a decline in the off - season. The valuation may be on the high side, and the short - term trend is likely to be weak. The recommended strategies are unilateral short, calendar spread reversal, and no cross - variety strategy [5] - PVC: Expected to run weakly. The current situation is high production and high inventory. As of January 8, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 79.67%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%. Domestic demand is weak, especially related to the real - estate industry. The cancellation of export tax rebates will increase long - term export competition pressure. The recommended strategy is unilateral range - bound operation for the 05 contract, with an upper pressure level of 4900 and a lower support level of 4600 - 4700, and no calendar spread or cross - variety strategies [7] 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Short - sellers' main logic: High supply and high inventory, with the inventory of caustic soda sample enterprises up 76% year - on - year; continuous alumina production cut expectations; about 3% of new capacity in the next year, while most non - aluminum downstream demand only grows at 2 - 3%; slowdown in export growth, limited support from the 50 - alkali to 32 - alkali spread structure; changes in delivery areas and delivery premiums/discounts [10] - Long - sellers' main logic: Anti - deflation and anti - involution are trends, with low profits, low absolute prices, and a small forward premium, offering high potential returns; significant losses in the integrated profit of caustic soda + PVC, with possible more - than - expected maintenance or production cuts in 2026; shutdown of overseas chlor - alkali plants, continuous expansion of the export market [10] - Core contradictions: Weak willingness to cut production on the supply side, and demand expansion is affected by low profits [12] - The basis of caustic soda 03 is weakening, and the 3 - 5 spread is also weakening [13] - Although the export market still has support, it is also facing structural adjustment. In 2025 from January to November, the cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 3.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The development of wet - process nickel may lead to large - scale application of the magnesium oxide precipitation process, which may replace caustic soda to some extent [17][20] - The FOB price in Northeast Asia has declined, currently around $350 per dry ton. The CIF price in Southeast Asia is $400 per dry ton, a decrease of $20 per dry ton from December 23. There is little market discussion, and Southeast Asian customers have not started new inquiries for spot orders [21][25] - The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is acceptable, and the spread between flake caustic soda and liquid caustic soda is also acceptable. The spread between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali is declining, which is negative for caustic soda. The spread between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali has always been an advanced indicator of the market, and the current spread of 10 yuan per ton is a negative signal [27][31][34] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Market structure: Rising production and rising inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 86.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. The factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 495,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 1.96% and a year - on - year increase of 76.03% [38][40] - Maintenance situation: There is less maintenance in January 2026. Some enterprises have ongoing or planned maintenance, such as Wuhai Chemical in the Northwest, Zhejiang Juhua and Ningbo Wanhua in the East, etc. [43][44] - New capacity: In 2026, caustic soda capacity will continue to be put into production, with a growth rate of over 3%. The total planned new capacity is 2.94 million tons [46] - Cost: In January 2026, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province decreased, and the cost of caustic soda has limited support. The marginal cost of Shandong's caustic soda production is calculated to be 2,122 yuan per ton. The price of liquid chlorine has not provided significant subsidies, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited [47][50][51] - Downstream of chlorine consumption: The production of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and chloroform is stable, and the profits are recovering. The stable operation of the downstream of chlorine consumption has less impact on the production reduction of caustic soda enterprises [54][59][64] 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina industry: In 2025, the alumina capacity expanded significantly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. In 2026, the new capacity is expected to reach 13.9 million tons, with more concentrated production in the first half of the year. However, the alumina industry is currently operating at a high level, with rising inventory and losses. The alumina plants may reduce production in the future, which will suppress the demand for caustic soda [72][74][76] - Other industries: The demand in the pulp industry is in the off - season, and the terminal profits are continuously being compressed. Although new pulp capacity is being put into production, the demand for caustic soda is not expected to increase significantly. The production of viscose staple fiber has increased, while the dyeing and finishing industry has declined. The water treatment industry and the ternary precursor industry have also seen a decline in production, resulting in a decrease in the overall demand for caustic soda [86][98][100] 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - Short - sellers' main logic: High supply and high inventory, with the PVC social inventory sample increasing nearly 40% year - on - year; weak domestic demand, especially in the real - estate sector; slowdown in export growth and reduced export competitiveness due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [107] - Long - sellers' main logic: Anti - deflation and anti - involution are trends, with low profits and low absolute prices; significant losses in the integrated profit of caustic soda + PVC, with the marginal device in Shandong approaching the cash - flow cost in December 2025; no new PVC capacity will be put into production in 2026; shutdown of overseas chlor - alkali plants, continuous expansion of the export market [108] - Core contradictions: The large forward premium of futures contracts [110] - The basis of the PVC main contract is oscillating strongly [111] 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The PVC production capacity utilization rate is 79.67%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.33%. There is less maintenance in January 2026. In 2026, except for the capacity release of Jiahua, there will be no new PVC capacity. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali plants is recovering [118][121][123] - Demand: The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly improved. The overall downstream PVC operating rate has declined month - on - month. The PVC export expectation has weakened. The single - month export volume decreased by 11.78% month - on - month, although it increased by 29.64% year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 47.17% year - on - year. The cancellation of export tax rebates from April 1, 2026, will increase future competition pressure. The demand from Southeast Asia and Central Asia is stable. The PVC warehouse receipts have declined but are still at a high level [130][136][143]