美豆周度报告-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that with a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market; however, demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is generally expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with a price range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - The bearish factors include the potential weakening of the Trump administration's support for the biodiesel addition policy after China purchases US soybeans, Brazil's entry into the harvesting stage, and the continued increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - The bullish factors are the expected purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans by China before February 2026 and over 25 million tons per year for the next three years, the initial signs of drought in central - eastern Brazil and southern Argentina, and the possibility of La Nina weather causing a reduction in South American soybean production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - US Soybeans: This week, the active contract of US soybeans closed at 1062.5 cents per bushel, up 13 cents per bushel. The rebound was due to the continued progress of Chinese procurement and the low precipitation in central and eastern Brazil. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, South American main - producing area weather conditions, and biodiesel policy progress [7]. - US Soybean Meal: This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $303.7 per short ton, up $12.7 per short ton. The rebound was supported by the continued progress of Chinese procurement and the drought signs in central and eastern Brazil [10]. - US Soybean Oil: This week, US soybean oil fluctuated and rose slightly, closing at 49.69 cents per pound, up 0.37 cents per pound. The stable oil market and lack of trading themes led it to follow the US soybean rebound [14]. - Regional Prices: As of January 2, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.19 per bushel, down $0.11; the price of soybeans in Iowa was $9.62 per bushel, down $0.28 per week. On January 9, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, dropped 11.8 to 104.52 reais per bag. As of January 7, the spot price at Brazilian ports dropped 7.5 to 134.64 reais per bag [16][18][20][22]. Supply Factors - In Brazil, the southern region is expected to have more precipitation in the next two weeks, while the central and eastern producing areas will have less. The main producing areas in Brazil are expected to have slightly less precipitation in the next two weeks, and Mato Grosso will have less precipitation after the middle of this month. Parana and Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil are expected to have more precipitation in the next two weeks [25][30][33]. - In Argentina, the main producing areas are expected to have slightly less precipitation in the next two weeks, and the central and southern regions will have less precipitation in the next week [40][42]. Demand Factors - As of December 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.33 per bushel, down from $2.45 last week [45]. - In the week of January 2, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.1126 million tons, down from 1.2199 million tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 0.9805 million tons, up from 0.7736 million tons last week; the net sales for this year were 0.8779 million tons, down from 1.1777 million tons last week; the sales for the next year were 0 tons, the same as last week; the quantity shipped to China was 0.397 million tons, up from 0.135 million tons last week [47][49][51][53][55]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.134, remaining in the La Nina range [58]. - The cost of soybean production in Brazil and the US is expected to rise slightly. The cost of soybean production in the US continues to increase, while the cost in Brazil has decreased year - on - year [60][62][64]. - As of January 6, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 95,900 lots, down from 117,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean oil was 73,000 lots, down from 80,700 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 20,700 lots, up from 10,200 lots last week [66][68][70].