能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20260111

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: January 11, 2026 - Report Author: Yang Honghan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to experience high-level oscillations in the short term [2][4] - The upward trend of butadiene is expected to slow down [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical's high-cis butadiene rubber plants continued to be shut down, while the load of individual butadiene rubber plants increased, with the capacity utilization rate reaching an absolute high level. The output of high-cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 31,800 tons, an increase of 800 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month increase of 2.55%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.15%, a month-on-month increase of 1.97 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene plants in the next cycle [5] 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, some enterprises were still in the shutdown and maintenance state during the "New Year's Day" holiday this week, gradually resuming work around the 4th. The production scheduling did not operate normally for most of the week, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate to continue to decline. The shipment was slow during the cycle, and the inventory reduction rhythm was lower than expected. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will increase in a restorative manner in the next cycle, and the overall output will increase with the resumption of work and production of maintenance enterprises. Some enterprises continued to control production flexibly to control finished product inventory, which will limit the recent increase range [5] - In terms of alternative demand, the price difference between the main contracts of NR-BR is gradually narrowing, and the alternative demand remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year-on-year growth rate [5] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%. The output of domestic butadiene rubber continued to be at a high level this cycle. The butadiene market was boosted by a sharp increase in the raw material market, and the shipment of production enterprises improved somewhat. However, there was some inventory waiting to be picked up after being sold. The overall inventory level changed little. Against the background of obvious differences in the negotiation focus, the inventory of individual sample traders decreased slightly during the downstream rigid demand price-pressing procurement follow-up [5] 3.1.4 Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,100 - 12,100 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the futures are at a premium to the spot, and the upper limit of the static valuation is temporarily invalid. The valuation logic has changed from the cost side providing support for the lower valuation to the NR-BR price difference providing support for the lower valuation [5] 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The unilateral trend has changed from being relatively strong in the previous period to high-level oscillations; the upper pressure is 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (moving dynamically following the spot trend of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton (supported by the NR-BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5] - Cross-variety: The price difference between NR-BR is gradually narrowing [5] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - In this cycle (January 2 - 8, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 113,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month increase of 0.18%. During the week, plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, a unit of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical 2, and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and there were no obvious changes in other plants, with a slight increase in weekly output. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 112,300 tons, a slight reduction compared to this cycle. There are no plans to restart plants next week, and the maintenance situation of Hainan Refining & Chemical needs further attention [6] 3.2.2 Demand - In terms of synthetic rubber, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber will remain at a high level in the medium term, maintaining a year-on-year high demand for butadiene. In the short term, with the reduction of butadiene rubber plant maintenance, it is expected that the rigid demand procurement volume of synthetic rubber for butadiene will remain at a high level [6] - In terms of ABS, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with relatively limited incremental demand [6] - In terms of SBS, the operating rate has increased slightly, maintaining rigid demand procurement for butadiene with little change [6] 3.2.3 Inventory - In this cycle (January 1 - 7, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory decreased slightly, and the total sample inventory continued to decline by 4.28% compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises fluctuated slightly, with a slight increase of 0.48% compared to last week. Although high-price transactions were slightly slow, affecting the slow inventory reduction, there was no obvious inventory pressure overall. The sample port inventory decreased significantly by 7.61% compared to last week. The arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, and the raw material inventory of downstream industries was normally consumed. Although there was some trading inventory, the market expectation was relatively strong in the later period, and it was in an inventory reduction cycle overall [6] 3.2.4 Viewpoint - In the short term, the relatively low absolute price has driven downstream periodic replenishment, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene is still relatively strong in the short term. However, due to the weakening of short-term spot market transactions, it is expected that the upward trend of butadiene will slow down [6]