超长债周报：长债收益率再创新高-20260111

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the central bank announced bond purchases of 50 billion yuan in November, with the purchase scale remaining the same as in October. There was a significant net withdrawal in the open - market operations, inflation continued to recover in December, and the A - share market started the year with strong volume and price. The bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yield of ultra - long bonds reached a new high during the week. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. Both the term spread and the variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][4][11][38]. - As of January 9, the spread between 30 - year treasury bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 42BP, at a historically low level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. Considering the economic situation and market factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will fluctuate at a high level in the near term, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds will have a narrow - range fluctuation [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank's bond - buying scale in November was 50 billion yuan, the same as in October. With open - market net withdrawal, inflation recovery, and A - share market strength, the bond market first declined and then rebounded. The ultra - long bond yield reached a new high during the week. Trading activity increased slightly and was very active. Both term and variety spreads widened [1][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: As of January 9, the 30 - 10 spread was 42BP, at a low historical level. The domestic economic downward pressure increased in November, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.1% decline from October. In December, CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and the deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][12]. - 20 - year CDB Bonds: As of January 9, the 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 14BP, at an extremely low historical position. The economic situation is similar to that of 30 - year treasury bonds. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion yuan. As of December 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of more than 14 years was 24.4329 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds account for 28.2%, local government bonds 66.4%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 25 - 35 - year variety accounts for the highest proportion at 40.2% [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 4 - 9, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds surged to 191.6 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 185.8 billion yuan. By term, 30 - year bonds accounted for 115.1 billion yuan [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 84.2 billion yuan, including 32 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 51.7 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a turnover of 984.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [28]. Yield - Due to factors such as central bank bond - buying and market conditions, the ultra - long bond yield reached a new high during the week. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 3BP, 4BP, 4BP, and 5BP respectively [38]. Spread Analysis - The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute low level. The variety spread also widened, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 42BP, and the 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 14BP [50][51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 closed at 110.87 yuan, with a decline of - 0.48%. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly [54].