东方证券煤炭行业周报：国内产能、海外进口均有望收缩，板块中长期预期改善-20260111

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The long-term fundamental outlook for the coal industry is improving, with a focus on the sector's allocation value. Despite concerns about seasonal price trends in the coal industry from March to May, domestic capacity is expected to be reduced, and coal imports are anticipated to shrink. This suggests that the bottom of the coal sector's long cycle has likely been established, paving the way for a potential upward trend in the future [3][58] - In the short term, both thermal coal and coking coal prices have stopped declining and are rebounding, which may lead to a recovery in market sentiment for the coal sector, presenting opportunities for short-term price rebounds [3][58] Summary by Relevant Sections Supply and Demand - Domestic coal production capacity is expected to be reduced, and coal imports are also projected to decline. For instance, 26 out of 52 coal mines in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, have been removed from the supply guarantee list. Additionally, Indonesia plans to approve a coal production quota of approximately 600 million tons for 2026, significantly lower than the actual production of about 790 million tons in 2025 [9] - The coal mining operating rate has shown a significant recovery, indicating a potential increase in supply [22] - Daily average iron output and cement capacity utilization rates are on the rise, suggesting an uptick in demand for coal [23] Price Trends - Thermal coal prices at ports have continued to rise, with a notable decrease in port inventories. The report indicates that when inventory pressures decrease, there is less incentive for traders and coal mines to lower prices, leading to stronger coal prices [9] - Coking coal prices have rebounded significantly, with futures prices rising to 1195.5 yuan per ton, a week-on-week increase of 7.2%. The price ratio between coking coal futures and thermal coal has also returned to a normal state after being significantly low [9] Market Performance - In December, the port coal price fell by 16.9%, and the coal sector index dropped by 4.1%. As of December 31, 2025, the coal industry index's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 1.42, indicating that the current valuation of the coal sector is at a historical median level [9]