金融风向标2026-W01：居民存款，去向何方？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a cautious outlook on the industry as it navigates through changing deposit dynamics and regulatory environments [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that approximately 74 trillion yuan of household time deposits are set to mature in 2026, with expected flows directed towards insurance, wealth management, and public funds [1][3]. - Regulatory changes are underway, with the central bank focusing on enhancing liquidity mechanisms for non-bank institutions and tightening controls on virtual currencies [14]. - The banking sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with some city commercial banks and rural commercial banks showing resilience, while larger state-owned and joint-stock banks face pressure [18]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The A-share market saw a significant increase of 5.1%, while the banking sector faced a decline of 1.88%, indicating a divergence in performance among different banking institutions [1][18]. - The central bank has conducted substantial net withdrawals from the market, totaling 1.7 trillion yuan, leading to a general decline in funding rates [2][20]. Deposit Maturity and Flow - As of November 2025, total deposits in China reached 282.5 trillion yuan, with household deposits accounting for 163 trillion yuan. The report estimates that 114 trillion yuan in deposits will mature in 2026, with 74 trillion yuan being household time deposits [3][4]. - The report anticipates that the re-pricing of deposits will lead to significant reductions in deposit rates, potentially shifting household preferences towards higher-yielding financial products [4]. Investment Opportunities - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from the migration of funds, as it offers competitive rates compared to traditional deposits. The report predicts continued growth in the insurance market [4]. - Wealth management products are projected to see a moderate increase, with an estimated growth of 3 trillion yuan in 2026, despite potential volatility in net asset values [4]. - Retail public funds, particularly money market funds, are expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10%, driven by their liquidity and competitive yields compared to bank deposits [4].