Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Macro Weekly Report: Moderate Recovery in Prices and Continuous Gold Purchases by the Central Bank" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, China's CPI showed a moderate increase, with an annual CPI remaining flat compared to the previous year. The PPI decreased in 2025 but showed signs of improvement in December. The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in December, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded [8][11][251] - The "Two New" policies (equipment renewal + consumer goods trade - in) and housing - related policies were introduced in 2026, which are expected to have an impact on the market, especially in the consumer and real estate sectors [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly growth rates showed fluctuations from 2023 to 2025. Different industries had different growth trends, with industries like information technology and finance showing relatively stable growth, while the real estate industry had negative growth in some periods [17] 3.2 Industry 3.2.1 Industrial Growth - The growth of the industrial sector was diverse. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing had relatively high growth rates, while others like coal mining and textile had more moderate or negative growth in certain months [30][32][33] 3.2.2 Industrial Output - Output of various industrial products, including energy, raw materials, and finished products, showed different trends. For example, the output of crude oil and steel had fluctuations, and the output of new energy vehicles increased [35] 3.2.3 Industrial Electricity Consumption - In November 2025, China's total electricity consumption reached 8356 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to have an average annual growth rate of 4.2% - 5.6% [42] 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to November 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries like electronics and power showing growth and others like coal mining showing a decline [46][50] 3.2.5 Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the finished - goods inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The inventory of the mining industry decreased, while that of the mid - and downstream manufacturing industries remained stable [57] 3.3 Price Index 3.3.1 CPI - In December 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. Food prices had a significant impact on CPI, with fresh vegetables and fruits driving the increase, while pork prices had a downward effect [64] 3.3.2 PPI - In December 2025, the national PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. Production materials prices had a greater impact on the overall PPI decline [73] 3.3.3 Housing Prices - In November 2025, new - home and second - hand home prices in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities generally showed a downward trend year - on - year, with different degrees of decline [83][88] 3.4 Foreign Trade and Investment 3.4.1 Import and Export Trade - In November 2025, China's total import and export value was $520.63 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year [97] 3.4.2 Key Commodity Exports and Imports - The exports and imports of key commodities such as agricultural products, industrial raw materials, and high - tech products showed different trends. For example, the export of high - tech products like electric vehicles increased [105][106] 3.4.3 Foreign Investment - Not provided in detail in the given content 3.5 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. Investment in different industries had different trends, with the secondary industry showing growth and the tertiary industry showing a decline [120] 3.6 Domestic Trade - The growth rates of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales showed fluctuations. The retail sales of different consumer goods categories also had different performance [163][170] 3.7 Transportation - The transportation volume of goods and passengers showed different trends in different transportation modes. For example, the railway and civil aviation transportation had different growth rates in passenger volume [173][178] 3.8 Banking and Currency 3.8.1 Social Financing - The new social financing scale and its components showed fluctuations from 2024 to 2025. Different financing methods such as RMB loans, government bonds, and corporate bonds had different growth trends [188] 3.8.2 Monetary Liquidity - In October 2025, the growth rates of M1 and M2 decreased. The M2 - M1 scissors gap widened slightly, and the money activation trend slowed down [204] 3.8.3 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The central bank emphasized reasonable interest rate control to reduce the financing cost of the real economy. The RMB exchange rate remained basically stable against a basket of currencies [213][231] 3.9 Fiscal and Employment 3.9.1 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - Fiscal revenue and expenditure data showed different trends in different months. Tax revenue and non - tax revenue, as well as different expenditure items such as infrastructure and people's livelihood, had different growth rates [239][240] 3.9.2 Employment - Not provided in detail in the given content 3.10 Business Climate Survey 3.10.1 Global Manufacturing PMI - The global manufacturing PMI showed fluctuations from 2024 to 2025. Different countries and regions had different manufacturing climate situations [248] 3.10.2 China's Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing PMI - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded. Different industries within the non - manufacturing sector had different degrees of recovery [251][259] 3.11 US Macroeconomy 3.11.1 US GDP - The US real GDP had different growth rates in different quarters from 2022 to 2025, with private consumption, investment, and net exports having different impacts on GDP growth [266] 3.11.2 US Employment - The US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data showed the employment situation in the United States [269] 3.11.3 US Treasury Yields - The yields of different - term US Treasury bonds showed different trends, and the yield curve inversion situation also changed [274] 3.11.4 US Retail Sales - The US retail and food service sales had different growth rates from 2024 to 2025, with different categories of goods having different performance [277] 3.11.5 Federal Reserve's Assets and Liabilities - The Federal Reserve's asset structure and federal funds rate, as well as the changes in the reverse - repurchase amount on the liability side, were presented [278][281]
物价温和回升，央行持续购金
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2026-01-11 14:00