信用分析周报（2026/1/5-2026/1/11）：关注边际修复行业的配置机会-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the second half of 2025, the "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed the stabilization and recovery of commodity prices, and the fundamentals of some industries have shown signs of repair. For example, the non-ferrous metals industry has seen an upward shift in the price center of major metals under the multiple positive factors of continuous increase in policy support for stable growth, rapid expansion of downstream emerging industry demand, and steady improvement in domestic resource security capabilities. The profitability, operational capacity, and solvency of issuing entities have been enhanced. In 2026, the excess returns in the credit bond market may come from the value discovery of industries with fundamental repair. For the non-ferrous metals industry with fundamental repair, it is recommended to focus on allocating AA+/AAA-level central enterprises and regional leading state-owned enterprises and appropriately extend the duration, while also paying attention to avoiding the credit risks of bonds issued by small and medium-sized smelting and processing enterprises with low resource self-sufficiency rates and single industrial chain layouts [5][7][48] - Overall, this week, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings were compressed by less than 10BP, while the AA+ credit spread of the non-bank financial sector widened significantly by 20BP. In terms of urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities were compressed by 1-4BP compared with last week. In terms of industrial bonds, the short-term (1Y) credit spreads of industrial bonds widened significantly, while those above 1Y were mostly compressed to varying degrees. In terms of bank capital bonds, the short-term (within 1Y) spreads of bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds widened slightly, the 3Y spreads were significantly compressed, and the medium- and long-term (5-10Y) spreads were slightly compressed [6][47][48] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Credit Hot Events - On January 9th, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) issued a business reminder on further standardizing the issuance of debt financing instruments, emphasizing five aspects: distribution information entry, withdrawal reporting, subscription record-keeping, lead underwriting syndicate mechanism, and information disclosure quality. It is expected that in the short term (Q1 2026), the issuance efficiency of inter-bank bonds may decline, and the issuance difficulty of some weakly qualified issuers may increase. In the long term, the inter-bank bond issuance market will become more standardized and transparent, which is conducive to improving market liquidity and pricing efficiency [11][12][13] - On January 9th, the Guizhou Provincial People's Government issued policies to support the integrated development of industry, county prosperity, and people's well-being. In the short term, the policies will directly support county-level "Three Guarantees" and debt risk mitigation. In the long term, they will support the continuous improvement of local debts through industrial upgrading and fiscal revenue growth. For the existing platform debts in Guizhou, the policies strengthen the financing support for high-quality projects and force county-level platforms to transform into operating entities, which may further intensify regional credit differentiation [14][15] 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset-backed securities) was 115.3 billion yuan, an increase of 191.6 billion yuan compared with last week. The total issuance was 285.5 billion yuan, an increase of 209.2 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 170.3 billion yuan, an increase of 17.6 billion yuan. The net financing of asset-backed securities was 14.7 billion yuan, an increase of 15 billion yuan [16] - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 30.9 billion yuan, an increase of 37.5 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 89.7 billion yuan, an increase of 144.5 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was -5.4 billion yuan, an increase of 9.6 billion yuan [16] 3.2.2 Issuance Cost - This week, the issuance volume of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased significantly, and the issuance rates of AA and AA+ decreased significantly compared with last week. Specifically, the average issuance rates of AA urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were in the range of 2.6-2.8%, the average issuance rates of AA+ urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were in the range of 2.2-2.3%, and the issuance rates of AAA-level bonds of different varieties were all below 2.3% [23] 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Transaction Volume - In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset-backed securities) increased by 554.6 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 246 billion yuan, an increase of 139.5 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 329.6 billion yuan, an increase of 172.8 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 498.8 billion yuan, an increase of 242.3 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset-backed securities was 16.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8 billion yuan [24] - In terms of turnover rate, the overall turnover rate of credit bonds increased compared with last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.58%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 1.7%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 3.21%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points. The turnover rate of asset-backed securities was 0.44%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [25] 3.3.2 Yield - This week, the yields of 5Y credit bonds of different ratings widened slightly, while the yields of credit bonds of other ratings and maturities fluctuated by no more than 3BP compared with last week. Taking AA+ 5Y bonds of each variety as an example, the yields of different varieties all increased to varying degrees [27][28] 3.3.3 Credit Spread - Overall, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings were compressed by less than 10BP this week, while the AA+ credit spread of the non-bank financial sector widened significantly by 20BP. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA media, mining, commercial trade, and transportation industries were compressed by 7BP, 6BP, 7BP, and 6BP respectively; the credit spreads of AA+ building materials and machinery industries were compressed by 8BP and 10BP respectively; the credit spread of the AAA computer industry was compressed by 7BP. The credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated by no more than 5BP [31] - Urban Investment Bonds: In terms of maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds of different maturities were compressed by 1-4BP compared with last week. In terms of regions, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in different regions were compressed to varying degrees [36][37] - Industrial Bonds: This week, the short-term (1Y) credit spreads of industrial bonds widened significantly, while those above 1Y were mostly compressed to varying degrees [40] - Bank Capital Bonds: This week, the short-term (within 1Y) spreads of bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds widened slightly, the 3Y spreads were significantly compressed, and the medium- and long-term (5-10Y) spreads were slightly compressed [43] 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - This week, the implied ratings of 41 bond issues of 8 entities were downgraded, including 16 issues of AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. and 10 issues of New Hope Wuxin Industrial Group Co., Ltd. The "21 Wantong 02" issued by Guangxi Wantong Real Estate Co., Ltd. was extended; the "H20 Zhengrong 2" issued by Zhengrong Real Estate Holdings Co., Ltd. defaulted substantially; Shandong Zhangqiu Blower Co., Ltd. was placed on the watch list, and its "Zhanggu Convertible Bond" was also placed on the watch list [4][45] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - This week, a total of 1,323.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured in the open market, and the central bank conducted a total of 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,221.4 billion yuan for the whole week. As of the close on Friday, DR001 closed at 1.28% [6] - For the non-ferrous metals industry with fundamental repair, it is recommended to focus on allocating AA+/AAA-level central enterprises and regional leading state-owned enterprises and appropriately extend the duration, while also paying attention to avoiding the credit risks of bonds issued by small and medium-sized smelting and processing enterprises with low resource self-sufficiency rates and single industrial chain layouts [7][48]