集运指数（欧线）观点：短线或偏强震荡，02多单、04空单酌情减仓-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is a potentially strong and volatile trend. Consider reducing long positions in the 02 contract and short positions in the 04 contract as appropriate [1][4]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates on products such as photovoltaics and batteries will lead to a rush - to - export situation in the first quarter of 2026, which will have a marginal positive impact on the overall demand for container shipping (European Line) from January to March and a marginal negative impact on the demand after April [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - The weekly average capacity in January is 309,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. In the past week, there were changes in shipping schedules such as Evergreen's CES route and PA Alliance's FE4 route [4]. - The latest February shipping schedule includes 11 blank sailings, with the weekly average capacity revised down to 271,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%. The March schedule includes 9 blank sailings and 2 undetermined sailings, with a weekly average capacity of 284,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5% [4]. - After the Chinese New Year in 2026, the capacity growth rate is much higher than before and during the festival, indicating greater capacity pressure after the festival [5]. 3.2 Valuation - The FAK average for weeks 2 - 3 falls within the range of $2,700 - 2,760/FEU. Different shipping companies have different pricing strategies for different weeks [7][19]. - A neutral - to - pessimistic valuation scenario for the 2602 contract is presented, with the contract's valuation potentially falling in the range of 1,730 - 1,780 points. The 2604 contract cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April [8]. 3.3 Strategy - For the 2602 and 2604 contracts, consider reducing long and short positions respectively to avoid uncertainties. For the 2610 contract, maintain the strategy of shorting on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, consider a 4 - 10 calendar spread to deal with the impact of the "rush - to - export" event [9]. 3.4 Demand Side - In January, most shipping companies felt that the cargo volume of BCO/NVO was good, but the FAK segment was average. The peak cargo volume usually occurs around mid - January and then declines [6]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaics and batteries will lead to a rush - to - export situation in the first quarter of 2026, which may support the shipping demand from January to March but have a negative impact on the demand after April [6]. 3.5 Supply Side - The current weekly average capacity in January is 309,000 TEU/week. The capacity in February and March has different changes, with the Spring Festival blank sailings mainly concentrated from the second half of February to the first week of March [4]. - After the Spring Festival in 2026, the capacity growth rate is significantly higher than before and during the festival, indicating greater capacity pressure [49]. - In the past three months, there have been new ship deliveries among the top ten shipping companies, and there are also new ships to be delivered in the next three months [77][80].