地方债周度跟踪：Q1已披露计划发行21076亿元，与去年相当但1月体量大-20260111

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current issuance and net financing of local government bonds have increased compared to the previous period, but it is expected to decline in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds has significantly lengthened this period. The issuance progress of new special bonds at the beginning of this year is faster than in previous years. The planned issuance of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is comparable to the same period in 2025, with a larger planned issuance scale in January and March [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds. The weekly turnover rate has increased compared to the previous period. Currently, 10 - year and 15 - year local government bonds have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds has increased, and the weighted issuance term has lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (January 5 - 11, 2026) is 117.664 billion yuan/114.668 billion yuan (the previous period was 26 billion yuan/17.449 billion yuan), and it is expected to be 70.201 billion yuan/63.925 billion yuan in the next period (January 12 - 18, 2026). The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period is 21.36 years, significantly longer than 5.26 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounts for 0.1% and 2.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 0.1% and 2.5%. The cumulative issuance progress was 0.0%/0.0% and 2.8%/0.8% in 2025, and 0.0%/0.0% and 0.0%/0.0% in 2024 [2][18]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 2026 is 210.76 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025. As of January 9, 2026, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 210.76 billion yuan. The issuance in Q1 26 may be similar to Q1 25, with the front - loaded issuance of refinancing bonds boosting the issuance volume. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger. The issuance terms of local government bonds in Guangxi, Ningbo, and Beijing in Q1 show a shortening trend, but the term of bonds issued in the first week of this year is still relatively long [2][24]. - This period, 3.3 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 25.6 billion yuan and 3.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively [2][21]. 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds has narrowed for 10 - year bonds and widened for 30 - year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate has increased compared to the previous period - As of January 9, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds are 23.18BP and 17.76BP respectively. Compared with December 31, 2025, they have narrowed by 0.09BP and widened by 2.50BP respectively, and are at the 73.70% and 65.50% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][35]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period is 0.65%, an increase compared to 0.24% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, and Qingdao are better than the national average [2][43]. - Currently, 10/15Y local government bonds have certain cost - effectiveness. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].