Novoray(SH:688300) Guoxin Securities·2026-01-11 14:52Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market sentiment is high due to the strengthening of equities and seasonal effects. The equity market rose rapidly after the New Year's Day holiday, and the convertible bond market also performed strongly. The median market price of convertible bonds increased by 5 yuan to 138 yuan, and the valuation continued to rise while the underlying stocks were rising. The premium rates of convertible bonds in each parity range are close to the 100% quantile of historical levels, and the convertible bond ETF shows a significant net inflow trend. Looking forward, due to seasonal effects, some institutions with calendar - year assessments such as annuities and securities dealers' proprietary trading may gradually increase their positions in January. There is still a small room for the valuation of convertible bonds to increase. Relative - return investors are advised to allocate small - position and well - balanced non - redeemable equity - biased convertible bonds with suitable premium rates, and absolute - return investors are recommended to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations [2][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Focus (January 5 - January 9, 2026) Stock Market - A - shares rose rapidly after the New Year's Day holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points and the daily trading volume reaching nearly 3 trillion yuan. The technology - growth style led the rise, with sectors such as brain - computer interface, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion performing well, while the dividend sector lagged behind. By industry, most Shenwan primary industries rose, with the comprehensive (14.55%), national defense and military industry (13.63%), media (13.10%), non - ferrous metals (8.56%), and computer (8.49%) sectors leading the gains, and the banking (-1.90%), transportation (0.23%), petroleum and petrochemical (0.29%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (0.98%) sectors performing poorly [1][6][7] Bond Market - At the beginning of the year, the central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals in the open market, but the capital market remained generally balanced and loose. Affected by the continuous rise of the equity market and the strong performance of the commodity market, the bond market was generally weak in shock. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.88% on Friday, up 1.98bp from the previous week [1][7] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 4.45% for the whole week, the median price rose 3.60%, and the arithmetic average parity calculated by the report rose 5.79%. The overall conversion premium rate decreased by 0.55% compared with the previous week. In terms of individual bonds, the convertible bonds of Seli (AI medical), Dingjie (AI application), Dinglong (semiconductor), Shengxun (AI security), and Borui (innovative drugs) led the gains, while those of Tianchuang (control right change), Dianhua (solid - state battery), Huarui (CNC cutting tools & announced forced redemption), Huanxu (sip module & announced forced redemption), and Maolai (precision optics) led the losses. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 468.504 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 93.701 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [1][7][11] Views and Strategies (January 12 - January 16, 2026) - The convertible bond market sentiment is high under the strengthening of equities and seasonal effects. The equity market rose rapidly after the New Year's Day holiday, and the convertible bond market also performed strongly. From the data of convertible bond holders in December, public funds and social security funds increased their positions, while the positions of insurance and annuity institutions reached the lowest level since 2022, and the reduction of securities dealers' proprietary trading has slowed down. Looking forward, due to seasonal effects, some institutions may gradually increase their positions in January, and the convertible bond valuation still has a small room for improvement. Relative - return investors are advised to allocate non - redeemable equity - biased convertible bonds with suitable premium rates in small positions, and absolute - return investors are recommended to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations [2][16] Valuation Overview - As of January 9, 2026, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan are 51.34%, 41.94%, 29.84%, 26.12%, 23.41%, and 17.71% respectively, located at the 99%/100%, 98%/100%, 96%/99%, 99%/100%, 98%/100%, and 99%/100% quantiles since 2010/2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan is - 4.06%, located at the 2%/5% quantiles since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds is 50.47%, located at the 96%/100% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks is 9.41%, located at the 97%/100% quantiles since 2010/2021 [17] Primary Market Tracking - Last week (January 5 - January 9, 2026), Lianrui Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and no convertible bonds were listed. The underlying stock is Lianrui New Materials, a leading company in the basic chemical industry. The scale of the convertible bond issuance is 695 million yuan, and after deducting the issuance fees, it is planned to be used for high - performance high - speed substrate ultra - pure spherical powder material projects, high - thermal - conductivity high - purity spherical powder material projects, and supplementary working capital. As of the announcement on January 9, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the next week. Last week, there was 1 new company approved for registration by the exchange (Naipu Mining Machinery), 1 new company accepted by the exchange (Shangluo Electronics), and 4 new companies with board proposals (Quanxin Co., Ltd., Fujia Co., Ltd., Yilian Technology, Zhenhua Co., Ltd.). As of now, there are 97 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 150.27 billion yuan, including 7 approved for registration with a total scale of 8.34 billion yuan and 5 approved by the listing committee with a total scale of 2.91 billion yuan [24][25]