华联期货黄金周报：短期高位震荡，中长期上涨逻辑不变-20260111

Report Title - "Hualian Futures Gold Weekly Report: Short-term High-level Volatility, Long-term Upward Logic Remains Unchanged" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes were 70.63% and 64.56% respectively; in the first week of 2026, they were 3.69% and 3.96% respectively [7][29] - Inflation data has shown a downward trend, with the US core CPI in November rising at the slowest pace since early 2021, which is favorable for the Fed to cut interest rates [7][33] - US Treasury yields have been fluctuating downward, and real interest rates rose slightly in November [7][38][43] - The global gold supply and demand were in a loose state in 2024, while the domestic supply and demand were in a tight balance. In 2025, investment demand increased significantly both globally and domestically [7][56] - The US economy showed mixed signals, with non - farm employment slightly lower than expected but the unemployment rate falling unexpectedly [7][50] - It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates twice in 2026, and factors such as the decline in the global US dollar reserve ratio and the increase in the US fiscal deficit are favorable for the long - term rise of gold prices. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold in the medium term and set stop - profits in the short term [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - Gold price trends: In 2025, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes had significant increases, and they also rose in the first week of 2026 [7][29] - Inflation situation: CPI and PCE peaked in June 2022 and then declined. Core inflation has been relatively stable, and the slow rise of the core CPI in November is conducive to interest rate cuts [7][33] - Interest rate trends: US medium - term Treasury yields have been fluctuating downward since mid - to late October 2023, and real interest rates rose in November [7][38][43] - Supply and demand: The global gold supply and demand were loose in 2024, and the domestic supply and demand were in a tight balance. Investment demand increased significantly in 2025, and domestic jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026 [7][56] - US economic data: The non - farm employment growth in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate was lower than expected. The average hourly wage growth of non - farm employees continued to decline [7][50] Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: Gold futures contracts were in a high - level volatile state last week. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts in 2026, the decline in the global US dollar reserve ratio, and the increase in the US fiscal deficit are all favorable for gold prices. It is expected that gold will maintain an upward trend in the first half of 2026 [11] - Operation suggestions: Hold long positions in gold in the medium term and set stop - profits in the short term. For options, take profits on call options and then observe [11] 2. Spot and Futures Markets - Last week, gold prices were in a high - level volatile state, with the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes rising in 2025 and the first week of 2026 [23][29] 3. Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation: CPI and PCE peaked in June 2022 and then declined. Core inflation has been stable, and the slow rise of the core CPI in November is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cuts [33] - Interest rates: US medium - term Treasury yields have been fluctuating downward since mid - to late October 2023, and real interest rates rose in November [38][43] 4. US Economy - GDP: The US GDP increased by 2.33% year - on - year in the third quarter of 2025, up from 2.08% in the second quarter [46] - PMI: The ISM manufacturing PMI in December 2025 continued to decline, while the non - manufacturing PMI continued to strengthen [46] - Non - farm employment: The non - farm employment growth in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate was lower than expected. The average hourly wage growth of non - farm employees continued to decline [50] 5. Gold Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Global: The supply and demand were in a loose state in 2024 due to inventory increases, and central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. Investment demand increased significantly in 2025 [56] - Domestic: The supply and demand were in a tight balance in 2024, and investment demand increased significantly in 2025. Domestic jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026 due to the new gold tax policy [56] 6. Exchange Rate and US Dollar Index - Not elaborated on specific trends and impacts in the provided content 7. Gold Domestic - International Price Spread - The price spread between the domestic and international gold markets is within a reasonable range, but no specific data or analysis is provided [87] 8. Gold Basis - Not mentioned in the provided content 9. Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - Not elaborated on specific trends and impacts in the provided content