REITs市场25年回顾暨26M1月报：把握被动资金即将入场的布局机会-20260111

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the REITs industry [2] Core Insights - The REITs market has seen a total of 78 public REITs listed with a total market capitalization of 223.3 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 124.7 billion yuan [2] - The overall performance of the market in 2025 showed a cumulative increase of 4.3% in the CSI REITs total return index, with a notable rise of 16.2% in the first half of the year, followed by a decline of 10.2% in the second half due to various negative factors [7][8] - The average P/NAV for the REITs market at the end of 2025 was 1.14 times, indicating a return to historical average valuation levels [7] - The report suggests that the current REITs valuation has returned to a central position, indicating a potential opportunity for increased allocation [7] Market Overview - The secondary market performance in 2025 was characterized by a strong first half, driven by macro liquidity easing, followed by a weaker second half due to valuation corrections and negative market sentiment [8] - The average daily turnover rate for the market decreased throughout the year, reflecting a decline in trading enthusiasm, with an average of 0.67% for the year and dropping to 0.4% in December [9] - The report highlights that the IDC and consumer sectors outperformed the market, with increases of 44% and 33% respectively, while the energy sector showed the weakest performance [12][15] Primary Market Review - In 2025, the total number of new issuances and expansions was 25, with a total issuance amount of 47.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 14% in the number of issuances and 27% in the total amount [16][17] - The average absolute return for newly listed REITs was 27% over the first four days of trading, with a 10.5% probability of "breaking" [21] Policy Review - Key policies in 2025 included the expansion of asset categories for infrastructure REITs to include commercial office buildings, hotels, and sports venues, as well as the initiation of commercial real estate REITs pilot programs [26][27][28] - The report notes that the regulatory environment is becoming more favorable for REITs, with efforts to streamline approval processes and broaden the scope of eligible assets [29][30]