碳酸锂周报：宏观情绪仍旧提振盘面-20260111

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market is strongly influenced by capital sentiment. On the supply side, rumors from overseas and Jiangxi mining areas continue to disrupt the supply outlook. On the demand side, while there are optimistic expectations for energy storage demand, there is short - term pressure from the decline in material factory production schedules. The industry's inventory shows an early signal of turning from destocking to restocking, introducing new variables to the market sentiment. The price is expected to move upward, and the recommended strategy is to consider range - bound trading for the LC2605 contract, with a reference range of (130,000, 150,000), or to buy call options [10][12]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - ly Views and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - On January 4, 2026, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", indicating that lithium resource development will become more "green and intensive" and future lithium salt supply growth may be limited by environmental protection and solid waste treatment capabilities. The resumption process of Jiangxi Jianxiawo Mining Area has raised market concerns again. - On December 26, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that for the "new three" industries such as new - energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key is to standardize the order and lead innovation, and comprehensively rectify the "involution - style" competition during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. - On December 25, 2025, Wanrun New Energy announced that it would conduct production - reduction maintenance on some production lines from December 28, 2025, for about one month, which is expected to reduce the production of lithium iron phosphate by 5,000 to 20,000 tons. - On December 24, 2025, it was reported that the lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. in Zhenkouli, Yifeng County - Jianxiawo, Fengxin County is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. - The Yichun Tendering Network in Jiangxi Province released the first environmental impact assessment information for the project. - On December 16, 2025, the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel 27 mining licenses [8]. 3.1.2 Weekly Views - Market Review: From January 2 to January 9, 2026, the spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, with the benchmark spot price reaching 139,100 yuan/ton on January 9, a 18.64% increase from January 2. The main contract of lithium carbonate in the futures market fluctuated downward, with the latest transaction price at 143,420 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 17.96%. The open interest of the main - month contract is about 510,900 lots. - Supply: This week, the production of lithium carbonate increased slightly. Before the Spring Festival, a small number of lithium salt factories plan to conduct maintenance, but the actual impact on production is limited, and most enterprises maintain stable production. The overall operating rate of domestic lithium salt factories remains high, and new projects in production continue to increase output. Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt the stability of overseas lithium resource supply. The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" has tightened the mine approval standards, affecting the domestic mining supply outlook. - Demand: The downstream production schedule declined. The demand outlook for the energy - storage sector remains strong. Some lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate producers plan to conduct maintenance, and the power - battery industry is in a seasonal off - peak, suppressing short - term raw material procurement demand. Some downstream lithium iron phosphate enterprises have confirmed price increases and propose that the settlement price of lithium carbonate follow the futures trend. Downstream material factories are cautious about the current high - price spot lithium carbonate and mainly purchase for rigid demand. - Cost, Profit, and Inventory: The price of lithium concentrate has risen following the futures price of lithium carbonate. Although the import volume of lithium concentrate is sufficient, miners are strongly inclined to hold prices, and the price of spodumene remains firm. The cost side provides rigid support for the spot price. Integrated enterprises with their own mines and salt lakes still have considerable profits at the current high - price level, while processing enterprises relying on purchased raw materials have relatively thin profits. The industry's overall inventory level is low, and this week it turned from continuous destocking to restocking. Lithium salt factories are more willing to sell spot goods, and their inventory has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises replenish inventory for rigid demand, and the trading sector is more willing to sell. The futures warehouse receipts increased significantly this week, reaching 20,000 tons. - Outlook: As mentioned above. - Strategy: As mentioned above [10]. 3.2 Industry Structure - The lithium industry chain includes upstream raw materials (such as spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake brine, and recycled lithium), lithium salt products (carbonate lithium, lithium hydroxide, etc.), materials (ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, etc.), lithium batteries, and terminal consumption (new - energy vehicles, energy storage, etc.) [16]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets 3.3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was 143,420 yuan/ton, a 17.96% increase from the previous period; the trading volume was 469,479 lots, a 19.63% increase; the open interest was 510,874 lots, a 4.22% increase; and the total number of warehouse receipts was 25,360 lots, a 25.04% increase [22]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - There is a seasonal chart and a historical price chart of the lithium carbonate spot price, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [25]. 3.4 Inventory - The total lithium carbonate inventory was 109,405 tons, a 0.0045% increase from the previous period; the market inventory was 65,949 tons, a 5.4% decrease; the factory inventory was 18,096 tons, a 4.5% decrease; and the registered warehouse receipt volume was 25,360 tons, a 25.04% increase [33]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - There are charts of the comprehensive cost and comprehensive profit of lithium carbonate, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [38]. 3.6 Supply 3.6.1 Supply - Side: Production, Capacity, and Import - Export of Lithium Carbonate - There are charts of the monthly production, capacity, and capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, as well as its net import volume, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [42]. 3.6.2 Supply - Side: Major Project Tracking (Potential Capacity) - From 2025 - 12 to 2026 - 12, multiple companies in different regions such as Jiangxi, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, etc. have planned new lithium - carbonate production - capacity projects, with a total planned new capacity of 211,000 tons [46]. 3.6.3 Supply - Side: Lithium Carbonate Import Situation - There are seasonal charts of monthly lithium carbonate imports, including those from Argentina and Chile, as well as annual cumulative import charts, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [48]. 3.6.4 Supply - Side: Lithium Carbonate Production from Different Raw Materials - There are seasonal charts of monthly lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycled materials), but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [58]. 3.6.5 Supply - Side: Spodumene Import Situation - There are seasonal charts of monthly spodumene imports from Zimbabwe and Australia, as well as charts of monthly import volume and cumulative import volume, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [69]. 3.7 Demand 3.7.1 Demand - Side: Overall Demand Situation - There are charts of the monthly consumption of lithium carbonate, monthly production of new - energy vehicles, penetration rate of new - energy vehicles, and seasonal chart of monthly power - battery production, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [82]. 3.7.2 Demand - Side: Power Batteries - There are charts of monthly production, installation volume, export, and energy - storage situation of power batteries, as well as the proportion of power - battery installation volume of each vehicle type and the monthly production and demand proportion of cathode materials, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [88]. 3.7.3 Demand - Side: Output of Each Material - There are charts of the output of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [98]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a long - term supply - demand balance sheet of lithium carbonate from 1995, including data on total supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, import and export volume, production from different raw materials, output of downstream products, and inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [107].