鸡蛋周报：期现货同步反弹-20260111

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Egg Weekly Report: Synchronous Rebound in Futures and Spot Markets" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The egg market shows significant supply - demand imbalance, with high in - production laying hen inventory, young age structure, limited demand benefits, and still - excess capacity. Egg prices hit bottom multiple times in 2025, pressuring farmers and weakening their confidence. Before 2026, farmers may accelerate the culling of old hens. As the in - production laying hen inventory decreases and the Spring Festival stocking demand starts, the market supply - demand pattern is shifting from loose to tight - balance, but the upward price space is restricted by substitute prices and terminal consumption [13] - The main contract continues to fluctuate widely at a low level, with the pressure level at 3050 - 3100. For options, investors can lightly buy call options of far - month contracts [13] Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Viewpoint and Strategy - Fundamental Viewpoint - Spot: The national egg spot price continued to rebound this week. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin (5.02%) from last week, with the low - price area at 3.00 yuan/jin. In the short term, production costs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price. Market trading improved, and inventories were digested. However, the previous price was disappointing, and the industry's continuous losses led to accelerated culling of old hens and low replenishment enthusiasm. The in - production laying hen inventory and new production may decline, but the medium - term supply pressure remains, and the price rebound space is limited [12] - Supply - demand: In December 2025, the national in - production laying hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a 0.92% month - on - month decrease and a 7.11% year - on - year increase. The newly - hatched laying hens in December were from the chicks replenished around August 2025. Due to over - capacity, low price increases, and high - temperature impacts in August, the number of newly - hatched hens decreased. In December, the egg price increase was weak, and farmers were eager to cull old hens. The actual number of culled old hens was greater than the newly - hatched ones, so the inventory decreased. In January, the number of newly - hatched hens will continue to decline, and farmers are likely to cull old hens before the Spring Festival. The in - production laying hen inventory may decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. The short - term egg price is under pressure, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is improving [12] - Outlook: The egg market has supply - demand imbalance. The in - production laying hen inventory is high, and the age structure is young. The demand is limited, and the capacity is still excessive. In 2026, farmers may cull old hens before the Spring Festival. As the inventory decreases and the Spring Festival stocking demand starts, the supply - demand pattern is changing, but the price increase is restricted. Future attention should be paid to culling, capacity reduction, and holiday demand [13] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Spot Price - The national egg spot price continued to rebound. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin (5.02%) from last week, with the low - price area at 3.00 yuan/jin. In the short term, production costs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price, but the medium - term supply pressure remains, and the price rebound space is limited [24] 3. Capacity - In - production Laying Hen Inventory - In December 2025, the national in - production laying hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a 0.92% month - on - month decrease and a 7.11% year - on - year increase. In January, the number of newly - hatched hens will continue to decline, and farmers are likely to cull old hens before the Spring Festival. The in - production laying hen inventory may decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. The short - term egg price is under pressure, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is improving [37] 4. Supply Side - In - production Laying Hen Inventory - In December 2025, the national in - production laying hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a 0.92% month - on - month decrease and a 7.11% year - on - year increase. In January, the number of newly - hatched hens will continue to decline, and farmers are likely to cull old hens before the Spring Festival. The in - production laying hen inventory may decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. The short - term egg price is under pressure, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is improving [37] - Replenishment Volume Analysis - In December, the total sales volume of commercial - generation chicks of 15 representative enterprises was 37.25 million, a 3.39% month - on - month increase. As capacity is gradually reduced, farmers' replenishment sentiment has slightly improved. However, due to the low - level egg price fluctuations and long - term losses in egg chicken farming, most small and medium - sized farmers' replenishment enthusiasm is still low. Only large - scale farms maintain normal chick - buying. The utilization rate of breeding eggs is generally 40% - 50%, and only a few large enterprises can reach about 60%. Considering the low chick price, the chick price is expected to be stable, with an average monthly price of about 2.80 yuan/chick [42] - Culled Chicken Price - Based on the average culling age of 488 days in December, the old hens to be culled in January were mostly from the chicks replenished from August to September 2024. With the weak egg price increase and low expectations for the Spring Festival market, farmers plan to cull old hens before the Spring Festival. In January, the supply of old hens is relatively sufficient, and the demand will improve due to Spring Festival stocking. The price of old hens may fluctuate within a narrow range, with an average monthly price of about 4.10 yuan/jin [45] - Culled Chicken Slaughter Volume - The total slaughter volume of 22 designated slaughter enterprises this week was 2.333 million, a 196,500 increase (9.20% month - on - month) from last week. After the New Year's Day holiday, slaughterhouses resumed work. With the simultaneous increase in egg and chicken prices, the slaughter end is optimistic about the pre - Spring Festival market, but the overall purchase increase is limited due to weak downstream demand [48] 5. Demand Side - Demand Shows Seasonal Trends - As an agricultural and sideline product, egg prices show obvious seasonal characteristics. They usually decline from January to April, reach the annual low around April, then rise until reaching the first - half - year high at the end of May, decline in June, rise in late July, reach the annual high from mid - to late September, decline after the peak season in September and October, and gradually stabilize from November to December [71] 6. Cost and Profit - Cost Side - The feed cost is the main cost of egg chicken farming, accounting for about 80% of the total cost. In 2026, the corn supply is expected to increase, and the annual average price may slightly decrease. The international purchase volume of soybean meal may increase, and its average price may also decline slightly. Although the feed cost may decrease by 1% - 2%, other costs such as labor and epidemic prevention increase. The full - industry full cost is generally above 3.5 yuan/jin. The egg feed cost in 2026 is expected to decline by 1% - 2% year - on - year, which will support egg chicken farming profits [79] - Egg Chicken Farming Profit - The egg chicken farming profit is mainly affected by egg prices and farming costs. This week, the cost per jin of eggs was 3.52 yuan/jin, unchanged from last week. The profit was - 0.42 yuan/jin, a 0.13 yuan/jin (23.64%) increase from last week. The farming cost per chicken was 133.10 yuan/chicken, a 0.13 yuan/chicken (0.10%) increase from last week. The farming profit was 4.84 yuan/chicken, a 4.69 yuan/chicken (49.21%) increase from last week [87]