纯碱玻璃周报：宏观情绪扰动，玻碱反弹承压-20260111

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Soda Ash: Supply is at a high level due to the resumption of maintenance - affected enterprises, with production reaching 75.36 million tons in the week of January 8, 2026, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. Demand is weak as downstream float glass production lines have cold - repairs, and overall shipment rate dropped to 78.18%. Factory inventories have accumulated significantly, reaching 157.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.93%. Overall supply - demand is difficult to improve, and the 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1150 - 1280 [6]. - Glass: Supply is decreasing as two production lines had cold - repairs, with the average capacity utilization rate at 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points. Some regions saw improved sales due to market sentiment, and overall enterprise inventories decreased slightly to 5551.8 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.37%. However, high inventories still suppress the market, and the 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1070 - 1180 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - week Views and Strategies - Soda Ash: Supply increased, demand was weak, inventories accumulated, and the 2605 contract is expected to range from 1150 - 1280 [6]. - Glass: Supply decreased, inventories decreased slightly, but high inventories still pressured the market, and the 2605 contract is expected to range from 1070 - 1180 [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - Soda Ash: Upstream includes natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, etc.; downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [12]. - Flat Glass: Upstream includes raw materials like quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and fuels such as natural gas, coal - made gas, and petroleum coke; downstream includes real estate, automotive, and electronics industries [14]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - Glass: As of January 9, 2026, the FG main contract closed at 1144, and the North China basis closed at - 124 yuan/ton. The FG5 - 9 spread closed at - 94 yuan/ton [21][29]. - Soda Ash: As of January 9, 2026, the SA main contract closed at 1228, and the North China basis closed at 22 yuan/ton. The SA5 - 9 spread closed at - 67 yuan/ton [25][29]. 3.4 Inventory - Glass: As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 5551.8 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.37%, and an inventory days of 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [9][33]. - Soda Ash: As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 157.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.01 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 6.93% [6][44]. 3.5 Supply - Glass: From January 2 - 8, 2026, the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points, and the output was 105.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% [9][49]. - Soda Ash: As of January 8, 2026, the production was 75.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%, and that of combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68% [6][57][59]. 3.6 Demand - Glass: As of December 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are winding down [64]. - Soda Ash: As of January 8, 2026, the shipment volume was 58.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%, and the overall shipment rate was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15 percentage points [6][78].