港口库存仍处于高位，甲醇价格承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal prices are rebounding, driving up the cost side. The domestic methanol operating rate and production remain at a high level, while the international methanol operating rate has dropped to a low level. The import pressure in January has decreased, reducing the supply pressure. - Currently, the demand from some traditional downstream sectors is weak, the olefin profit is poor, the MTO maintenance plan in East China has been implemented, and the MTO industry is expected to have a reduced load, putting pressure on demand. - The import volume in January has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction at ports. Although the macro - sentiment is good and methanol has risen for four consecutive weeks, the port inventory is still high and the downstream profit is poor, so the methanol price is expected to fluctuate mainly. - For unilateral and option trading, interval operation is recommended, with a reference interval of [2150, 2350] [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Supply and Demand Overview - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 45.11 tons, showing an increasing trend. The import volume is expected to decrease. Due to the opening of the arbitrage space for inland goods to flow to ports, the apparent import demand may weaken, and the port methanol inventory may decline [12]. - Supply: The weekly production of Chinese methanol is expected to be about 2.0511 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 90.31%, a slight increase compared to the current period. The estimated arrival plan of imported methanol samples is 285,700 tons, including 186,100 tons of explicit and 99,600 tons of non - explicit. The domestic trade is estimated to be around 20,000 - 30,000 tons [12]. - Demand: With the implementation of the MTO maintenance plan in East China, the MTO industry is expected to have a reduced load. In terms of traditional demand, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and chlorides have increased [12]. - Industrial Chain Profit: The import profit remains at a loss of - 202 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia remains stable at a loss of - 227 yuan/ton, and the downstream profit is in a large loss. The profit of MTO in East China remains at a loss of - 1446 yuan/ton [12]. - Coal Price: The slow approval of RKAB in Indonesia, the strict implementation of production control targets, and the expected export tariff will still dominate the market sentiment and drive up coal prices [12]. 3.2 Strategies - MA605 Strategy: Short MA605. As of January 8, the price of MA605 was 2231 yuan. The logic is that the port inventory is at a relatively high level, the downstream profit is poor, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [17]. - PP - 3MA Strategy: Short the PP - 3MA spread. As of January 8, the spread of the May contract was - 209 yuan. The logic is that in 2026, PP will still be in the peak production period, with greater supply pressure than methanol, while the new production capacity of methanol downstream is large, and the methanol demand is resilient. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - Spot Price: As of January 8, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2220 yuan/ton [24]. - Basis: As of January 8, the basis relative to the May contract was - 11 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4 Supply - side - Capacity Utilization and Production: Last week (20260102 - 0108), the effective production capacity of Chinese methanol plants was 106.275 million tons/year, excluding 1.77 million tons/year of invalid production capacity. The production was 2,042,365 tons, a decrease of 6200 tons month - on - month. The plant capacity utilization rate was 91.42%, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% due to the decrease in the production capacity base [83]. - International Operating Rate and Imports: As of January 7, 2026, the methanol arrival volume in China during the period (20260101 - 20260107) was 373,300 tons, including 335,100 tons of foreign vessels (227,100 tons of explicit and 108,000 tons of non - explicit, with 83,400 tons of explicit in Jiangsu) and 38,200 tons of domestic trade vessels (13,300 tons in Jiangsu, 8800 tons of non - explicit in Zhejiang, and 16,100 tons in Guangdong) [91]. - New Production Capacity in 2025: China's new methanol production capacity in 2025 was about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3%, and most of the plants were equipped with downstream products such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO [94]. - New Production Capacity in 2026: China's new methanol production capacity in 2026 is expected to be about 7.87 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [95]. 3.5 Demand - side - Apparent Consumption: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [101]. - Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Production: The MTO operating rate was 89.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. Although the loads of many MTO enterprises in East China were reduced, the loads of inland enterprises increased, resulting in a slight increase in the weekly average operating rate after hedging [105]. - Traditional Downstream Operating Rate: The traditional downstream operating rate was low [109]. - Downstream Purchasing Volume: As of January 7, 2026, the order backlog of sample enterprises was 237,500 tons, an increase of 29,500 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.16% [122]. - New Downstream Production Capacity: The new downstream production capacity is expected to be high, with a corresponding methanol consumption of 10.52 million tons, indicating that the methanol demand remains resilient [125]. 3.6 Inventory - Enterprise Inventory: As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 447,700 tons, an increase of 25,100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.94% [131]. - Port Inventory: As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 40,800 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The提货 at the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remained stable, while the delivery at the marginal warehouses along the river was weak due to the opening of the inland delivery space [133].