供需紧平衡，铝价仍具上行潜力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is in a tight supply - demand balance, and aluminum prices still have upward potential under the support of global wide - policy and the tight supply - demand balance. The traditional consumption areas have a slowdown in growth, and exports are restricted by US tariff policies, but emerging areas such as artificial intelligence, energy storage, and robotics show clear incremental demand. The "aluminum substituting for copper" trend will continue due to the high copper - aluminum price ratio. [7] - The raw material bauxite supply is expected to remain loose, but policy changes in Guinea need attention. Alumina supply pressure exists with large - scale new production capacity, and policy adjustments in the domestic industry should be closely watched. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity expansion channels are basically closed, and overseas supply growth in 2026 is limited. [7] - The strategy is to hold medium - term long positions and buy on dips. The medium - term support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2603 is 23,000 - 23,300 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - Macro: Geopolitical events such as the US military action in Venezuela, the US - EU tension, and the uncertainty in the Middle East have increased market concerns. The US employment growth in December 2025 was still sluggish with 50,000 new non - farm jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate. [7] - Supply: Bauxite supply is expected to be loose, but Guinea's policy changes are a risk. Alumina supply pressure persists with large new - capacity projects, and cost provides some price support. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and the expansion channel is basically closed. Overseas supply growth in 2026 is limited. [7] - Demand: Traditional consumption areas have a slowdown, and exports are affected by US tariffs. However, emerging areas like AI, energy storage, and robotics will drive demand growth, and the "aluminum substituting for copper" trend will continue. [7] - Inventory: Domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, social inventory is increasing, and the spot discount is widening. [7] - Strategy: Hold medium - term long positions and buy on dips. The medium - term support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2603 is 23,000 - 23,300 yuan/ton. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents figures on domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums and discounts, LME aluminum prices, and the Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio, but no specific analysis is provided other than the data sources. [11][15] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - Bauxite: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a 22.50% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 187 million tons, a 29.61% year - on - year increase. In 2024, the cumulative import was 158.767 million tons, a 12.3% year - on - year increase. Guinea was the main source, accounting for 69.41%. Domestic bauxite production from January to October 2025 was 50.5155 million tons, a 5.19% year - on - year increase, but in October, it decreased by 6.96% year - on - year. Since July, domestic bauxite port inventory has declined. [25][31] - Alumina: In November 2025, the weighted average full cost of domestic alumina was 2,870 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease. The spot price dropped to 2,869 yuan/ton, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease. The industry was near the break - even point with an average loss of 1 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China's alumina production was 8.138 million tons, a 7.6% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative production was 84.657 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 970,300 tons, a 30.92% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export was 2.3433 million tons, a 46.7% year - on - year increase. The net export was 1.373 million tons, a 612.58% year - on - year increase. In 2025, it was a year of large - scale capacity investment, and there are still many projects to be put into production in 2026 and later. [39][41] - Electrolytic Aluminum: In November 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry showed "increasing cost and growing profit". The weighted average full cost was 16,297 yuan/ton, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. The average profit was about 5,400 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum smelting enterprise's built - in capacity was 45.158 million tons, and the operating capacity was estimated to be 43.479 million tons, with an operating rate of 96.28%. In November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.086 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 64.93 million tons. From January to November 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 40.172 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports were about 1.47 million tons, a 2.44% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative import was about 23.578 million tons, a 19.35% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the domestic primary aluminum export was about 5.83 million tons. As of January 8, 2026, the LME futures inventory was 501,800 tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 718,000 tons. [55][61][62][68][72][73] 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - Aluminum Alloys: In November 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 1.739 million tons, a 17.0% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative production was 17.456 million tons, a 15.8% year - on - year increase. In 2024, the cumulative production was 16.141 million tons, a 9.6% year - on - year increase. [81] - Aluminum Products and Bars: In November 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.931 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative production was 61.511 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. In 2024, the national aluminum product production was 67.8311 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. [88] - Aluminum Imports and Exports: In November 2025, China's imports of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products were 240,000 tons, a 14.0% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative import was 3.6 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, the export was 570,000 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year decrease and a 13.3% month - on - month increase; from January to November, the cumulative export was 5.589 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease. [94] - Downstream Demand: In real estate, from January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a 15.9% year - on - year decrease. In 2026, building aluminum consumption is expected to decline by 5% to 9.088 million tons, and its proportion in the overall electrolytic aluminum downstream demand will drop to 21%. In the transportation industry, the demand for aluminum in the automotive sector is expected to increase, with new energy vehicle aluminum demand reaching 4.373 million tons in 2026. In the power industry, the growth of photovoltaic aluminum consumption will slow down, while energy - storage aluminum demand is expected to increase significantly, with a 60% year - on - year increase in global energy - storage battery shipments in 2026, driving an 815,000 - ton increase in aluminum demand. [105][109] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - Supply - Demand Forecast: Domestically, the decline in real - estate aluminum consumption in 2025 will be offset by the growth of new demand in photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles, and domestic electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a tight balance in 2026. Globally, the global primary aluminum production in 2026 is expected to be 75.4 million tons, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. The global aluminum demand is expected to increase by 2.7%, and the supply - demand will be in a tight balance. After 2027, as China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity reaches its peak, the supply increment will mainly come from overseas, and the demand from new energy and AI will continue to grow, leading to an expanding supply - demand gap. [112] - Industrial Chain Structure: No specific content analysis is provided other than the data source. [116]