债券周报 20260111：商品交易再通胀，债市怎么走？-20260111

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The bond market experienced a "poor start" at the beginning of 2026 due to multiple factors such as the strong performance of the equity and commodity markets, large - scale government bond issuance at the beginning of the year, and increased redemption pressure on funds. Although some policies are beneficial to the bond market, the market still has concerns about the bond market's performance in January and 2026 [1][2][11]. - The commodity market shows a "re - inflation" trading logic at the beginning of the year, but the sustainability of the commodity price increase remains to be observed. If the actual situation does not meet expectations, it may bring trading opportunities for the bond market [3][39]. - For the bond market strategy, the 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point of the shock range, and the leverage strategy is still effective. The allocation of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of banks is better than trading [3][4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. The bond market experienced a "poor start" - Reason 1: The strong performance of the equity and commodity markets suppresses the bond market - The PMI in December rebounded counter - seasonally, and policies were introduced, boosting the opening - year macro - expectations. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above 4000 points, and the Wind All - A Index rose 5.1%. - The expectation of continued fiscal efforts and investment recovery in 2026 led to the warming of re - inflation trading. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 2.5% month - on - month, with metal varieties being relatively strong [1][12][14]. - Reason 2: The large - scale issuance of government bonds at the beginning of the year raises concerns about supply - The issuance scale of key - term government bonds at the beginning of the year was significantly larger than that of the same period last year, causing supply concerns. The current government bond issuance is in line with the neutral issuance speed under a 4% deficit ratio, and there may be room for acceleration in the future. - The bidding for local bonds in the first week of January was not good, and the spread between local bonds and government bonds has exceeded 20bp. Future policies to control bond - issuing costs need attention [19][21][24]. - Reason 3: Increased redemption pressure and continuous net selling by funds - At the beginning of the year, the funds for fund volume - boosting flowed back, and the scale of credit bond ETFs decreased rapidly after the New Year. - Since the beginning of the year, affected by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect, inflation expectations, and supply concerns, funds have continuously sold bonds net, mainly old - term policy financial bonds within 10 years and inter - bank certificates of deposit [26]. 2. Is the commodity market trading re - inflation? - The commodity market shows a "re - inflation" logic, with strong performance in non - precious metals and mid - upstream sectors such as non - ferrous and black metals. The driving forces include policy - induced macro - expectation improvement, the capital effect of precious metals, and the resonance of risk preferences during the equity spring rally. - Specific factors include the repair of undervalued sectors by speculative funds, the tightening of coal supply, the early - stage production of industrial products after the holiday, and the bottoming - out and recovery of inflation expectations. However, the current trading is mainly at the expectation level, and the sustainability of the commodity price increase remains to be observed [30][33][34]. 3. Bond market strategy: The 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point, the leverage strategy is still effective, and the allocation of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is better than trading - The 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point of the shock range, and the 1.9% level has allocation value - It is expected that the 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point of the shock range, and the 1.9% level is worth allocating. It can be gradually built according to the liability situation. - The 10y Treasury bond fluctuates around OMO + 30 - 50bp as the core range, with an additional 5bp of possible extreme fluctuations. - The first quarter may be the high - point period of the bond market shock, so the current 1.9% level has allocation value [38][43]. - Can the leverage strategy continue? - At the beginning of the year, the funds are relatively stable and loose, and the bond market leverage level has increased significantly. The carry - trade spread is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period last year, so the leverage strategy is still effective. - In the middle and late ten - days, factors such as the tax period and government bond payment may cause fluctuations in capital prices, but it is unlikely to tighten significantly. The marginal change of certificate of deposit pricing can be observed, and the leverage level can be adjusted flexibly if necessary [44][47][49]. - How to participate in the current Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of banks? - From the allocation perspective: Currently, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 2 years have no obvious advantages compared with medium - term notes of the same rating. For 2 - 3y bonds, some city and rural commercial bank entities can be appropriately selected for bottom - position allocation. Institutions with stable liability ends can participate in the allocation of 4 - 5y bonds. - From the trading perspective: If the holding period is less than 1 month, the 10y interest - rate bond is better than the 5y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. If the holding period is 3 months, the 5y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds can better reflect the coupon and riding value. Considering the current headwinds in the bond market, the trading strategy is recommended to prioritize 10y interest - rate bonds, and the trading of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds should wait for a favorable market [53][58]. 4. Review of the interest - rate bond market: The stock - bond seesaw and supply concerns lead to a steeper yield curve - Funding situation: The central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase withdrawals, and the funding situation was stable and balanced [69]. - Primary issuance: The net financing of government bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, while the net financing of policy financial bonds decreased [74]. - Benchmark changes: The term spread of government bonds widened, and the term spread of China Development Bank bonds narrowed [81].