Xinda Securities·2026-01-11 15:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal mining industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The current phase is viewed as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a focus on the recovery of coal market conditions and value reassessment [3][5]. - Supply constraints are expected to re-emerge, with domestic coal production potentially declining due to regulatory checks and safety inspections [5][13]. - Demand for coal is projected to see slight growth in 2026, driven by a 5% economic growth rate and increased coal consumption in non-electric sectors [5][13]. - Short-term coal prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise due to seasonal demand increases and inventory reductions at coastal ports [5][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of January 10, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 696 CNY/ton, up 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][32]. - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1650 CNY/ton [34]. - International thermal coal prices show slight increases, with Newcastle coal at 71.8 USD/ton, up 0.3 USD/ton week-on-week [4][32]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is reported at 90.3%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points week-on-week [5][13]. - Demand from coastal provinces has increased, with daily consumption rising by 29.9 thousand tons (+15.11%) [5][13]. - Chemical coal consumption has also increased, with a weekly rise of 8.36 thousand tons (+1.13%) [5][13]. 3. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of coal supply as a stabilizing factor in the market, with expected regulatory constraints leading to a tighter supply environment [5][13]. - The anticipated recovery in coal prices and the potential for value reassessment in the sector are highlighted as key investment themes [5][13]. - The report suggests that the coal sector remains an attractive investment opportunity, particularly for high-quality coal companies with strong cash flows and dividend yields [5][15].