持续关注绿色燃料,重视废油脂稀缺性
Guotou Securities·2026-01-11 15:35

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the environmental and public utility sector [7] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases for second and third-generation biodiesel (HVO and SAF) in 2025, with HVO reaching a peak of $2853.38 per ton and SAF at $2900.95 per ton, reflecting increases of 69.2% and 69.1% from their lowest points respectively [1][17] - The demand for SAF is driven by the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, which mandates a gradual increase in SAF content in aviation fuel, leading to an estimated demand increase of approximately 1.4 million tons in 2025 [1][19] - The report emphasizes the scarcity of used cooking oil (UCO) as a raw material for HVO and SAF, suggesting that companies with waste oil resources and production capacity should be closely monitored [3][39] Summary by Sections 1. Special Research - The report discusses the upward trend in biodiesel prices due to downstream demand, particularly for SAF and HVO, with significant price increases observed in 2025 [1][17] - It notes that multiple countries are implementing policies to increase biodiesel blending ratios, with global biodiesel consumption expected to exceed 75.77 million tons by 2030 [2][25] - UCO is identified as a critical raw material with limited supply, highlighting the need to focus on companies that can efficiently utilize waste oil resources [3][39] 2. Market Review - The report provides a market performance overview, indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.06% from December 26 to January 9, with various sector performances detailed [4][42] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report outlines recent legislative progress in the EU regarding renewable energy, particularly the RED III directive, which aims to increase the share of renewable energy in the EU's energy consumption to 42.5% by 2030 [19][20] - It highlights the growing demand for advanced biofuels and the expected increase in biodiesel consumption in developing countries, which may take over as the main growth area for biofuels [2][23] 4. Investment Portfolio and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong capabilities in waste oil production and technology, such as Shanhigh Environmental, Longkun Technology, and Zhuoyue New Energy, due to the anticipated growth in SAF and HVO demand [3][39]