金信期货日刊-20260112

Report Core View - There are five reasons to be bullish on the coking coal main contract, including strong cost support, supply contraction, rigid demand and restocking, resonance of technology and funds, and positive policy expectations [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has continued to set records with 16 consecutive positive days, and the trading volume has continued to increase. Technically, there is a small - cycle adjustment [7] - The entire precious metal market has increased volatility, and caution is also advised when participating in the gold market [10] - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply has further fermented. The demand side has weak domestic demand support. Technically, after a breakthrough, there is a pull - back, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged for iron ore [12][13] - For glass, technically, it is consolidating at a high level after a breakthrough, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus policies and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [15][16] - It is estimated that the methanol import volume in December may exceed 1.7 million tons, with a significant month - on - month increase. The Iranian methanol export volume has significantly decreased, and the port is likely to enter a destocking cycle. The short - term price is mainly fluctuating upwards [19] - As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports has continued to accumulate, and the futures market has recently shown a range - bound trend [22] Summary of Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Cost support: The spot price has reached the coal mine cost line, and some have fallen below the imported coal cost. A strong support is formed around 1,000 yuan/ton, and the valuation is at a historical low with sufficient repair momentum [4] - Supply: Safety inspections in major production areas have been upgraded, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have shut down for maintenance in advance, and the production capacity in Yulin has been reduced by about 19 million tons, resulting in a tight supply of high - quality coking coal [4] - Demand: Steel mills will resume production after maintenance in January, and the daily hot metal output is expected to rise to around 2.3 million tons. The coking coal inventory of steel mills is at a medium - low level, and the rigid restocking demand before the Spring Festival is clear [4] - Technology and funds: The price has broken through the previous shock platform, with a MACD golden cross and a long - arranged moving average. The main contract has increased positions and risen, and the willingness of bulls to enter the market is stronger than that of bears, with active capital layout [4] - Policy: The "anti - involution" and capacity optimization of the steel industry are advancing, and macro - level stable growth measures have been intensified. The 2605 contract bears the pricing expectation of demand recovery in the second quarter, and both sentiment and valuation are being repaired [4] Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index has continued its upward trend. Every intraday adjustment is a good opportunity to buy on dips [6][7] Gold - The entire precious metal market has increased volatility, and caution is required when participating [10] Iron Ore - Supply: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply has further fermented [13] - Demand: Except for exports, the domestic demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors is still weak [13] - Technology: After a breakthrough, there is a pull - back, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged [12] Glass - Supply and demand: The daily melting volume has continued to decline slightly, and the inventory has also decreased. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus policies and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [16] - Technology: It is consolidating at a high level after a breakthrough, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged [15] Methanol - Supply: It is estimated that the methanol import volume in December may exceed 1.7 million tons, with a significant month - on - month increase. The Iranian methanol export volume has significantly decreased, and the port is likely to enter a destocking cycle [19] - Price: The short - term price is mainly fluctuating upwards [19] Pulp - Inventory: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.007 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the daily shipment speed in Qingdao Port has not changed much [22] - Market: The futures market has recently shown a range - bound trend [22]