格林大华期货早盘提示-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [4] - The United States' return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US Treasuries, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Global Economic News - President Trump announced a $200 billion mortgage - bond purchase plan through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lower mortgage rates [1] - US White House assistants are considering paying $100,000 to each Greenland resident to persuade them to break away from Denmark; Greenland has about one - third of the world's rare - earth reserves, 17.5 billion barrels of oil, and 4.15 trillion cubic meters of natural gas [1] - US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, below expectations; the December unemployment rate was 4.4%, below the expected 4.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in January dropped to 5% [1] - The AI boom is reshaping the global financing market, and in 2025, the global convertible bond financing scale soared to about $166.5 billion, a 24 - year high since 2001 [1] - As the AI theme boom may slow down, market focus is shifting to US "middle - class consumption", which may drive the US stock bull market in 2026 [1] - In 2025, US employers announced 1.206 million layoffs, a 58% increase from 2024, the highest in five years, mainly due to federal government spending cuts and tech industry strategic adjustments [1] - The eurozone labor market showed resilience, with the November unemployment rate dropping to 6.3%, but future employment recovery will be uneven [1] - Russia expressed serious concern about the US's illegal force action against a Russian oil tanker, which may intensify military and political tensions in the Euro - Atlantic region [1] Global Economic Logic - The US's actions in capturing the Venezuelan president, seizing oil tankers, and trying to buy Greenland have led to a "collapse" of the global political order, bringing great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - Fed uncertainty is expected to peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing US assets" [2] - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December and began buying $40 billion in short - term bonds per month, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet [2] - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US released a new National Security Strategy, aiming to adjust economic relations with China and revitalize its economic autonomy [2] - Consumer K - shaped differentiation in the US is intensifying, with high - income consumers' spending remaining resilient while low - and middle - income families are cutting back [2] - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds rose to 2.1% [2] - Google plans to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [2] - Morgan Stanley believes that AI data center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - NVIDIA's CEO said China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists are worried that large - scale corporate layoffs are an economic warning signal [2]