Economic Overview - The current account surplus expanded by 89% year-on-year to $492.8 billion, with a trade surplus contributing 40% and a reduction in service trade deficit contributing 14%[2] - The current account surplus accounted for 4.0% of GDP in Q3, the highest since 2011, indicating a need to be cautious of rising trade protectionism risks[2] Capital Flows - The capital account deficit increased by 87% year-on-year to $545.3 billion, with the online capital account deficit rising by 105% to $570.5 billion, marking a historical high[11] - Domestic capital outflow reached a record high of $5.615 billion, while foreign capital shifted from a net inflow of $57.1 billion to a slight outflow of $90 million[11] Investment Trends - Outward securities investment net outflow reached $263.2 billion, the highest for the same period, while other investments saw a net outflow increase of $1.133 billion to $1.705 billion[16] - Foreign debt and equity investment outflows were significant, with net outflows of $277 billion and $275.2 billion respectively, both reaching historical highs[16] Foreign Exchange Reserves - Foreign exchange reserves increased by $136.3 billion to $3.34 trillion, the highest since December 2015, driven by positive valuation effects from exchange rates and asset prices[41] - Gold reserves reached $283.3 billion, accounting for 8.5% of total foreign exchange reserves, marking a historical high[42] Market Sensitivity - The private sector's net foreign position turned positive for three consecutive quarters, indicating a shift towards a net creditor status, with net assets rising to $358.7 billion from a net liability of $159.8 billion at the end of the previous year[47] - The sensitivity of market participants to RMB appreciation may have increased, as the expectation of currency depreciation has shifted[51]
2025年前三季度对外经济部门体检报告：经常项目顺差扩大，内资流出加快，外资仍然低迷
Bank of China Securities·2026-01-12 00:11