2026-01-12：五矿期货农产品早报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes harvesting in February and the bearish impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [2][3][4] - For cotton, due to the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate, the short - term volatility of Zhengzhou cotton prices may increase after reaching a high level. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then go long [6][8][9] - For protein meal, the bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. With multiple factors at play, it's advisable to wait and see in the short term [11][12][13] - For oils and fats, the current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic, and the prices may be approaching the bottom range [15][16][17] - For eggs, the near - term contracts can be shorted on rebounds, while the far - term contracts may face pressure when the valuation is too high [19][20] - For pigs, in the short term, the near - term contracts may remain strongly volatile, and it's advisable to short on rebounds. In the long term, it's advisable to buy on dips [22][23] 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Sugar 3.1.1 Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5,288 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. The new - sugar quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were flat, and the mainstream quote of processing sugar mills remained unchanged. The basis of Guangxi's spot price to the main Zhengzhou sugar contract was 32 yuan/ton [2] - The Indian government will review sugar mills' export performance after March 31, 2026, and may re - allocate unused quotas. Brazil exported 2.913 million tons of sugar in December, with exports to China reaching 385,300 tons. As of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5823 million tons [3] 3.1.2 Strategy - Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish harvesting in February. When the bearish impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited, so temporarily wait and see [4] 3.2 Cotton 3.2.1 Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to decline. The closing price of the May contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,930 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. The basis was 1,255 yuan/ton [6] - Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, with 146,000 tons to China. As of January 1, the US cotton export sales in the current year were 1.5425 million tons, with 71,700 tons to China. As of January 9, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.57 million tons [6][8] 3.2.2 Strategy - Due to the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate, the short - term volatility of Zhengzhou cotton prices may increase after reaching a high level. Wait for a correction and then go long [9] 3.3 Protein Meal 3.3.1 Market Information - On Friday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,786 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.14%, and the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,338 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.85%. The basis of soybean meal was 354 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was 162 yuan/ton [11] - As of January 1, the US exported 880,000 tons of soybeans in the week, with 470,000 tons to China. As of January 2, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 2.25 million tons, and the port inventory was 8.23 million tons. The sample oil mill operating rate was 50.75%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.06 million tons. The USDA will release relevant reports on January 12, and the Canadian Prime Minister will visit China from January 13 - 17 [12] 3.3.2 Strategy - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit and large domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the current fundamental situation is weak. However, the inverted soybean crushing profit provides some support. It's advisable to wait and see in the short term [13] 3.4 Oils and Fats 3.4.1 Market Information - On Friday, the oils and fats futures prices rose slightly. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7,994 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.63%; the May palm oil contract was 8,682 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.81%; and the May rapeseed oil contract was 9,042 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton or 0.96%. The basis of soybean oil was 526 yuan/ton, palm oil was - 2 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil was 758 yuan/ton [15] - Indonesia may increase palm oil export taxes. It consumed 14.2 million liters of palm - based biodiesel last year and plans 15.65 million liters this year, with a target of increasing the blending ratio to 50% in the second half of the year. The MPOB will release the December monthly supply - demand report on Monday. As of January 2, the domestic three - major oils and fats inventory was 2.08 million tons [16] 3.4.2 Strategy - The current fundamental situation is weak due to high production, low exports, and high inventory in palm oil - producing areas and relatively high domestic inventory. However, the long - term outlook is optimistic, and the prices may be approaching the bottom range [17] 3.5 Eggs 3.5.1 Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices rose significantly. The supply is sufficient, with only small eggs in short supply. As the festival approaches, demand has increased, and egg prices may stabilize after rising this week [19] 3.5.2 Strategy - The near - term contracts can be shorted on rebounds due to large supply and expected post - holiday price drops. The far - term contracts may face pressure when the valuation is too high [20] 3.6 Pigs 3.6.1 Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mostly rose, with some areas stable or slightly falling. Northeast and South China farmers' price - holding and downstream acceptance led to small price increases, while in East China, increased supply may lead to price stability or slight drops today [22] 3.6.2 Strategy - In the short term, the near - term contracts may remain strongly volatile, and it's advisable to short on rebounds due to large supply expected around the Spring Festival. In the long term, it's advisable to buy on dips as the direction of capacity reduction is clear but the pace is uncertain [23]