贵金属日报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. Although there are short - term negative factors for silver, the large holdings of silver ETFs will keep the available inventory of London silver at a relatively low level. The expected increase in silver imports in India in the first quarter will support the spot demand for silver, so the upward driving force for the silver price still exists. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and conduct bargain - hunting long positions after the short - term negative factors end. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 970 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16870 - 21000 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On January 12, 2026, Shanghai gold rose 0.80% to 1008.54 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 6.19% to 19438.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4540.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 81.08 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.18%, and the US dollar index was 99.23 [2] - From January 2 to December 31, 2025, the price of the main COMEX silver contract increased by 142.17%. The total inventory of COMEX silver increased from 9918.8 tons on January 2, 2025, to a high of 16500 tons in early October. As of January 9, 2026, the silver one - month implied lease rate dropped from 10.24% at the beginning of the year to 3.76%, and the total inventory of COMEX silver decreased from 13989.5 tons at the beginning of the year to 13677.5 tons [2] 3.2 Strategy View - Mid - term factors support the upward trend of silver prices. As of January 9, 2026, the large holdings of silver ETFs (29295 tons) will keep the available inventory of London silver at a relatively low level. The new silver mortgage regulations in India will take effect in April, and it is expected that silver imports in the first quarter will increase significantly, which will support the spot demand for silver. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and conduct bargain - hunting long positions after the short - term negative factors end. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 970 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16870 - 21000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.3 Key Data Summary - Gold: For COMEX gold on January 9, 2026, the closing price of the active contract was 4518.40 dollars/ounce, up 0.68%; the trading volume was 198000 lots, up 3.20%; the position was 488100 lots, up 1.30%; the inventory was 1129 tons, down 0.21%. For LBMA gold, the closing price was 4493.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46%. For SHFE gold, the closing price of the active contract was 1006.48 yuan/gram, up 0.86%; the trading volume was 266400 lots, down 15.93%; the position was 318600 lots, up 1.58%; the inventory was 97.65 tons, unchanged. The settled funds increased by 2.45% to 51.307 billion yuan [5] - Silver: For COMEX silver on January 9, 2026, the closing price of the active contract was 79.79 dollars/ounce, up 4.04%; the position was 153200 lots, down 2.64%; the inventory was 13677 tons, down 0.62%. For LBMA silver, the closing price was 78.14 dollars/ounce, up 3.90%. For SHFE silver, the closing price of the active contract was 18731.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.52%; the trading volume was 228500 lots, down 26.62%; the position was 677900 lots, up 0.76%; the inventory was 620.26 tons, down 2.73%. The settled funds increased by 2.30% to 34.284 billion yuan [5] 3.4 Price and Inventory Charts - Multiple charts show the relationship between gold and silver prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volume, and position over time, as well as the near - far month structure and internal - external price differences, providing a comprehensive analysis of the market trends of gold and silver [7][10][20][26][39][46] 3.5 Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - On January 9, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was - 100.98 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 35.30 dollars/ounce. The SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 4.54 dollars/ounce [46]