股指期货：情绪积极，动态跟踪相关变量

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, the stock market continued its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 and 4100 points, and the daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion. The comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the gains, while the banking sector was the only one to decline, and the transportation and petroleum and petrochemical sectors had relatively small gains [1]. - The upward logic of the market since the beginning of the year is driven by the typical spring rally, which is mainly affected by policies, liquidity, and risk appetite in the environment of a vacuum in the first - quarter economic data and financial reports. Positive policy expectations, the expected return of funds to the stock market at the beginning of the new year, the absence of obvious overseas risks, and continuous positive news in industries and themes have created a positive feedback loop of capital inflow - price increase - further capital inflow [1]. - The sustainability of the spring rally depends on core drivers such as policies, liquidity, and risk appetite. Attention should be paid to factors like the determination of the new Fed chairman, the US interest - rate cut space this year, possible policy cooling measures in China after breaking through two integer thresholds, and the overall local policy direction after the local two sessions. In the short term, sentiment remains positive, and relevant variables should be dynamically tracked. In the longer term, the upward slope is expected to slow down as positive factors are gradually realized [2]. - Key factors to watch include December economic data, 2025 GDP data, local two sessions, the new Fed chairman, and this year's easing space [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 95 points/119 points, 78 points/47 points, 202 points/283 points, and 245 points/327 points respectively [4]. Trend Strategy - Adopt a bullish approach. The core operating ranges of the IF2601 main contract of IF are 4622 - 4860 points; the IH2601 main contract of IH, 3055 - 3196 points; the IC2601 main contract of IC, 7846 - 8371 points; and the IM2601 main contract of IM, 7875 - 8405 points [4]. Cross - variety Strategy - Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, most global stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 3.82%. Since 2025, major domestic indices have also shown varying degrees of increase, such as the Shenzhen Component Index up 35.6%, and the ChiNext Index up 55.4% [10][12]. - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. In the CSI 300 index, the information and pharmaceutical industries had relatively large increases, while the telecommunications industry declined. In the CSI 500 index, the telecommunications and industrial industries had significant gains [14]. - The trading volume and turnover rate of the Wind All - A index are presented in the report, reflecting the market's trading activity [14]. 4.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the main contract IC of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude [16]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures rebounded [16]. - The report shows the basis (futures - spot) trend of stock index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratio of main contracts [16]. 4.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of December 31, the TTM price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 16.54 times, 14.16 times, 11.78 times, 33.94 times, and 46.78 times respectively [17][20]. 4.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The report shows the trends of margin trading balance, new - established equity - biased funds, and the ratio of margin trading balance to A - share free - float market capitalization [23]. - Last week, the capital interest rate first rose and then fell, and the central bank conducted net repurchase after the new year [23].