锌周报：锌价高位波动加剧，关注市场情绪变化-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The macro - economic data in the US was mixed, dampening the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in January. The US Supreme Court did not rule on the tariff issue on January 9, and the ruling may be postponed to January 14. In China, inflation data improved from a low level, and the stock market index reached a ten - year high, keeping the market's bullish sentiment high [3][10]. - The fundamentals deviated from the strong market. Since mid - December, the Shanghai - London price ratio has recovered, the loss of zinc ore imports has narrowed significantly, the decline of processing fees has slowed down. After the zinc price rebounded, smelters' profits improved, and production willingness increased slightly. Refineries that had maintenance in early January resumed production one after another, and the refined zinc output is expected to increase month - on - month. The expected export of zinc ingots has declined, increasing the pressure on the supply side [4][10]. - On the demand side, due to the resumption of work after the New Year's Day holiday and the lifting of environmental protection warnings in the north, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises rebounded. Terminal orders were differentiated, with weak orders for guardrails and lamp posts and resilient orders for iron towers. Due to weak terminal consumption and rising raw material prices, die - casting zinc alloy enterprises reduced their operating rates. Some zinc oxide enterprises reduced their operating rates due to poor sales caused by high - priced raw materials. Overall, primary enterprises mainly consumed inventory, reduced purchases, and social inventory increased slightly [4][10]. - In the short term, the zinc price is mainly affected by the macro - economic situation and capital. The expectation of loose domestic and foreign monetary policies and strong capital bullish sentiment support the zinc price. However, the fundamentals cannot effectively match, with increasing supply and weakening consumption highlighted by high raw material prices, and social inventory accumulating. It is expected that the influence of capital will increase the volatility of the zinc price, and the futures price will fluctuate widely at a high level [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From January 2 to January 9, the SHFE zinc price rose from 23,275 yuan/ton to 23,970 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3,127 US dollars/ton to 3,149 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 7.44 to 7.61, an increase of 0.17. The SHFE inventory increased by 4,059 tons to 73,852 tons, the LME inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 107,450 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.37 million tons to 11.85 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 110 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - After the New Year's Day holiday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2603, reached a high of 24,560 yuan/ton, then some funds took profits and left the market. The zinc price adjusted at a high level along with the non - ferrous metals sector and finally closed at 24,015 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.02%. It fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. LME zinc rose first and then fell, reaching a high of 3,268 US dollars/ton, then falling back and finding support near the 20 - day moving average below, and finally closing at 3,149 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.7% [6]. - In the spot market, as of January 9, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was concentrated between 23,940 - 24,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 180 - 200 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand of 0 zinc was traded at around 23,940 - 24,160 yuan/ton, with a premium of 180 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract and a premium of 90 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot price. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 23,770 - 24,050 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 23,780 - 24,070 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 - 70 yuan/ton over the 2602 contract, and Tianjin's price was at a discount of 70 yuan/ton compared to Shanghai. Overall, the market supply increased, traders' willingness to sell improved, the spot premium decreased, but downstream buyers were still reluctant to buy at high prices, and actual spot transactions were mainly among traders [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of January 9, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 107,450 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons from the previous week. The SHFE inventory was 73,852 tons, an increase of 4,059 tons. As of January 8, the social inventory was 11.85 million tons, an increase of 0.87 million tons from December 31 and an increase of 0.37 million tons from January 5. During the week, the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was large, so Guangdong's spot zinc flowed into the East China region. At the same time, the arrival of goods in Guangdong was less during the week, resulting in a decline in inventory. Affected by the high zinc price during the week, the delivery rhythm in Shanghai and Tianjin slowed down. Coupled with the arrival of imported goods in Zhejiang during the week, the inventory increased [8]. - In the macro - economic aspect, the US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, and export orders are still weak. The ISM services PMI index in December rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest level since October 2024. The increase in new orders reached the highest level since September 2024. The US employment market did not show obvious pressure. The non - farm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. In China, the CPI in December increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest increase since March 2023. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the increase remaining above 1% for four consecutive months. The CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, turning from a 0.1% decrease in the previous month. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month; it increased by 0.2% month - on - month, rising for three consecutive months [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - SMM data showed that on January 9, 2026, the average processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were 1,500 yuan/metal ton and 37.5 US dollars/dry ton respectively, with the domestic average remaining flat and the foreign average decreasing by 6.25 US dollars/dry ton compared to the previous period [11]. - Slave Lake Zinc discovered high - grade lead - zinc mineralization in O'Connor Lake, with a maximum of 7.75% Pb and 6.62% Zn [11]. - On January 4, Indian mining group Vedanta Ltd released its production data for the third quarter (Q3 FY26) of the fiscal year ending in December 2025. The production of zinc metal from Indian mines increased by 4% year - on - year, and the production of zinc metal from overseas mines increased significantly by 28% year - on - year. The company said it was mainly due to improved operational efficiency [11]. - Kaz Mineral released its production situation for the third quarter. The report showed that the zinc concentrate metal volume in the third quarter of 2025 was 13,900 tons, and the total zinc concentrate metal volume in the first three quarters of 2025 was 34,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10% [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums and discounts, LME premiums and discounts, inventory data of LME, SHFE, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, smelter profit, domestic refined zinc production, refined zinc net import, and the operating rate of downstream primary enterprises [12][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][24][26][29][30].